Snobs vs. Slobs

The Cubs head to the Bronx tonight for the first time since the 1938 World Series, which the Cubs lost in 4 games. This weekend should be an interesting matchup; the Yankees’ struggles have been well documented this season, but they are coming off a series sweep of the Pirates. The good news for the Cubs is that they won’t have to face Randy Johnson. The bad news is that the Yankees lineup contains Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Gary Sheffield, Jorge Posada and Hideki Matsui.

In addition to the pitching matchups I always do, I am proud to add a new feature to the Series Preview section: Hot and Cold. While past performances against pitchers are interesting to know, I feel that it is just as interesting to know which hitters have been hot and cold as of late.

Hot like Lava (statistics over the course of the past 7 days):
Cubs:
Michael Barrett, .294 BA, .588 SLG, 2 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Jeromy Burnitz, .478 BA, .520 OBP, .913 SLG, 3 HR, 2 BB, 1 K
Todd Hollandsworth, .421 BA, .789 SLG, 4 2B, 1 HR, 1 K
Derrek Lee, .455 BA, .520 OBP, .864 SLG, 1 HR, 6 2B, 2 BB, 4 K
Aramis Ramirez, .500 BA, .875 SLG, 2 HR, 3 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Todd Walker, .526 BA, .684 SLG, 1 2B, 1 3B, 0 BB, 1 K

Yankees:
Robinson Cano, .409 BA, .480 OBP, .545 SLG, 3 2B, 2 BB, 4 K
Jason Giambi, .385 BA, .579 OBP, .769 SLG, 2 2B, 1 HR, 5 BB, 3 K
Derek Jeter, .385 BA, .448 OBP, .500 SLG, 2 2B, 3 BB, 2 K
Hideki Matsui, .391 BA, .440 OBP, .739 SLG, 2 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB, 3 K
Jorge Posada, .438 BA, .500 OBP, .875 SLG, 1 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB, 2 K

Cold unlike Lava
Cubs:
Jason Dubois, .111 BA, .222 SLG, 0 BB, 3 K
Corey Patterson, .174 BA, .217 SLG, 1 BB, 6 K
Neifi Perez, .200 BA, .240 SLG, 0 BB, 4 K

Yankees:
Tino Martinez, .125 BA, .222 OBP, .125 SLG, 1 BB, 3 SO (8 ABs)
Gary Sheffield, .211 BA, .348 OBP, .263 SLG, 1 2B, 4 BB, 1 SO
Ruben Sierra, .167 BA, .250 SLG, 1 2B, 0 BB, 5 K
Bernie Williams, .158 BA, .360 OBP, .158 SLG, 0 XBH, 6 BB, 3 K
Tony Womack, .083 BA, .083 OBP, .083 SLG, 0 BB, 1 K (1 for his last 12)

Pitching Matchups:
Friday: Carlos Zambrano vs. Carl Pavano
Zambrano left his last game early after making a funny slide into 2B and injuring his toe. Fortunately for Big Z, he won’t have to run the bases in this game. Hopefully his injury will not aggravate his delivery. After going 4-5 on their 9 game homestand, the Cubs would like to have a good road trip. The Yankees paid big bank for Carl Pavano, but have been disappointed with his results (4.17 ERA) thus far. Apparently the people in the Yankees front office don’t know what a strikeout rate is. Pavano’s career K rate of 5.85 is a lot lower than most pitchers with 3.00 ERAs have. As a Marlin, Pavano got a tremendous lift from playing in a pitcher’s park in front of a great infield defense in a relatively weak division. Now that he’s playing in less of a pitcher’s park in front of a mediocre infield defense in a strong division, some of his weaknesses have been exposed. After a bad outing in Kansas City, Pavano has been solid during his last two starts, allowing 3 earned runs (but 11 hits) in 12 innings pitched.

Notable matchups:
vs. Pavano:
+ Corey Patterson: 8-for-14, 2 2B, 1 3B, .571/.571/.857
+ Jeromy Burnitz: 9-for-27, 2 HR, 2 BB, 6 SO, .333/.419/.556
+ Derrek Lee: 5-for-19, 3 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 8 SO, .263/.300/579 – Michael Barrett: 0-for-7

vs. Zambrano:
Only three players on the Yankees have faced Zambrano more than 4 times:
Tino Martinez: 0-for-13, 2 BB, 3 SO
Tony Womack: 2-for-9, 2 BB, 1 SO
Gary Sheffield: 2-for-6, 3 BB, 0 SO (.556 OBP)

Saturday: Glendon Rusch vs. Chien-Ming Wang
Glendon Rusch finally had an outing in which he struggled the last time out. Despite that, he has been fantastic as a starter for the Cubs this year, tallying a 2.63 ERA in 8 starts. The bad news for the Cubs is that lots of hitters on the Yankees have been very successful against Rusch, and none of the hitters on the Cubs have ever faced Chien-Ming Wang before.

In a season marred with inconsistency from their starters, Wang has been one of the more consistent starters in the Yankees rotation. Wang is a finesse pitcher. He has averaged 3.14 strikeouts per 9 innings and 87 pitches thrown per outing. Like Rusch, he has only made 8 starts so far this year. He has not pitched particularly well in his last 3 outings, allowing 9 earned runs on 18 hits! over his last 15 innings. Wang seems to be a hittable pitcher, as he has a low strikeout rate and has allowed 47 hits in 48 2/3 innings.

Notable matchups:
vs. Rusch:
+ Bernie Williams: 6-for-16, 2 HR, 4 BB, 3 K, 1.289 OPS
+ Alex Rodriguez: 4-for-12, 2 HR, 0 BB, 1 K, 1.250 OPS
+ Gary Sheffield: 4-for-10, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K, 1.155 OPS
+ Derek Jeter: 8-for-22, 2 HR, 1 BB, 4 K, 1.073 OPS
+ Tino Martinez: 13-for-38, 1 HR, 1 BB, 5 K, .875 OPS – Tony Womack: 5-for-22, 2 BB, 5 K, .507 OPS

vs. Wang:
No Cubs have ever faced Wang.

Sunday: Sergio Mitre vs. Mike Mussina
Sergio Mitre is coming off the two best outings in his big league career. In his last two outings combined, he has pitched 16 shutout innings, given up just 7 hits, struck out 9, and has induced a staggering 35 ground ball outs compared to 4 fly ball outs… although he did it at home against two pretty mediocre offenses, the Blue Jays and the Marlins. It will be interesting to see how he performs against a potent offense like the Yankees, in their home ballpark.

Mike Mussina is pitching like Mike Mussina, as usual: about a 6.5 K rate, an ERA below 4, not many walks. That is the way Mussina has pitched for years. Like Mitre, he pitched a complete game shutout his last time out, but his more recent outings have not been so favorable. Before his CG, Mussina allowed 3 earned in 6 innings against the Brewers on June 8, and 6 earned in 6 innings against the Twins the outing before that.

With both pitchers coming off complete game shutouts, and most of the Yankees having never faced Mitre before, this matchup could be a very interesting one.

Notable Matchups:
vs. Mitre
No Yankees have faced Mitre more than 3 times. Tony Womack is 1-for-3 against him, and Gary Sheffield is 1-for-2 against him.

vs. Mussina
+ Jeromy Burnitz, 5-for-13, 2 2B, 2 BB, 5 K 1.236 OPS
+ Derrek Lee, 4-for-5, 1 2B – Todd Walker, 6-for-21 (.286 BA), 1 2B, 2 BB, 6 SO, .681 OPS – Jerry Hairston, 4-for-20, 0 BB, 4 SO, .417 OPS