Snobs vs. Slobs

Being a White Sox fan is to root against the two best stories in the playoffs right now. The team’s crosstown rival has its 100 years of futility and the first round opponent is the worst-to-first storyline.

The Sox are simply the team from a crappy division that nearly lost its lead to the (s)crappy Minnesota Twins and needed toplay two games after the season actually ended. Also, the team is missing its best player after he did one of the most boneheaded things you can imagine.

And, so, let’s take a little walk down preview lane before the Chicago White Sox take on the Tampa Bay Devil Rays this afternoon.

Overall

The two teams are, stylistically, pretty different. The Sox rely on a slugging attack (first in the AL in HR, fifth in runs overall) and offensive firepower, while staying mostly sluggish on the bases (13th in the AL in SB). The Sox notched a very average 4.06 team ERA, with a league-average 4.00 ERA from the bullpen.

Comparatively, the Rays lead the AL in SB, notching 142 at a 72% clip, while scoring the ninth most runs in the AL. The Rays slugged .422, good for eigth in the league. The Rays were second in the AL in pitching, with a 3.82 ERA, including a 3.55 ERA from the bullpen.

Overall, the Rays were a stronger team, notching a +103 run differential, 21 runs better than the Sox’ +82.

Lineups

White Sox
Orlando Cabrera (20.1)
DeWayne Wise (4.3)
Jermaine Dye (38.8)
Jim Thome (34.4)
Paul Konerko (11.4)
Ken Griffey, Jr. (3.7)
Alexei Ramirez (20.7)
A.J. Pierzynski (15.4)
Juan Uribe (-3.3)

Rays
Carl Crawford (7.1)
B.J. Upton (32.1)
Carlos Pena (32.0)
Evan Longoria (34.8)
Cliff Floyd (12.6)
Dioner Navarro (17.8)
Gabe Gross (4.3)
Jason Bartlett (12.9)
Aki Iwamura (16.0)

VORP value is in parentheses.

I’ve been telling anyone who listens that Nick Swisher is a better player than DeWayne Wise, though when I looked up the numbers, Swish’s VORP is less than career minor leaguer Wise’s.

Let me defend my boy Swish. Wise did some things and his VORP shows that, but Swish spent the last month of the season (he’s always been a ebtter second half player, by the way) being jerked around for the likes of a one future hall of famer and the aforementioned career minor leaguer. Swish’s .332 OBP is much better than Wise’s .293 OBP.

So, a lack of Swish is a problem within the team. Outside of that, the conventional wisdom that the Sox’ lack of team speed in the middle of the lineup is silly, considering the amount of punch in that part of the team. Yes, Thome isn’t going first-to-third on a Junior single, but he’s coming home when Junior pops one or hits a double.

The Rays have some pop in Longoria (.531) and Pena (.494), but the team is very speedy. Upton, Crawford and Bartlett all stole 20 or more bases and Longoria could go if given the chance. Getting Crawford back adds that dimension to the team.

Each team has a decent bench, with Ben Zobrist and Willy Aybar leading a decent speed situation. The Sox bench is a replacement unit, with Brian Anderson providing Junior’s legs in the late innings and Swish, uh, I don’t know. Something.

He should start.

Pitching staffs

White Sox
Javy Vasquez (22.3)
Mark Buehrle (36.4)
John Danks (52.8)
Gavin Floyd (27.3)
Bobby Jenks (21.6)

Rays
James Shields (43.7)
Scott Kazmir (37.1)
Matt Garza (35.8)
Any Sonnanstine (19.1)
Dan Wheeler (17.4)

The Rays’ bullpen is much better than the Sox’, in that the 3.55 ERA from the team’s bullpen is a near half-run better than the Sox’. With that said, I actually think the Sox have a better bullpen than people would imagine, as the Sox’ K/9 rate of 7.88 ranked third in the AL behind the second-ranked 8.03 K/9. Indeed, the Sox’ bullpen K:BB ratio ranked second in the league at 2.38, as compared to the Rays’ 1.95.

Similarly, the Sox’ 2.56 starters’ K:BB ratio is .23 better than the Rays’ 2.33. The Sox’ starters’ ERA (4.09) is only .14 worse than the Ray’s (3.95) and I wonder how much of that is due to the park effects of U.S. Cellular Comiskey Park Field.

So, my general feeling is that Sox pitching staff is underrated and with Thornton, Linebrink and Jenks, the Sox have a good chance to neutralize the Rays.

Managers and coaches

The Sox have an odd combination of very old slow guys (the middle of the lineup) and very young pitchers trying to prop up the team. Ozzie Guillen has done a good job of getting decent work out of the team all year, but he is without the team’s best player. His hopeless devotion to Wise is problematic, but, generally, Guillen is a good manager. He has worked his pitchers well and stuck with hot bullpen hands. His staff—pitching coach Don Cooper and hitting coach Greg Walker—has been with him, for the most part, and he trusts them. Cooper’s one of the best in the business.

I don’t know Joe Maddon’s work, but he is the frontrunner for the AL Manager of the Year award. He’s juggled two decent shortstops in Zobrist and Bartlett and gotten decent work from his team in the absence of team stalwarts Crawford and Rocco Baldelli.

Maddon has Don Zimmer as one of his coaches and former White Sox draft pick Jim Hickey as pitching coach and Steve Henderson as hitting coach. Again, I know not their work (well, Zim’s hilarious).

Conclusion and prediction

I actually think the Sox have a better chance than most are giving them credit for. The Sox’ offense is actually a bigger problem than the pitching staff, with OBP sucks in the 2, 4, 8 and 9 holes. The Rays’ advantage on the pitching side is partially a construction of the field they play on and I do think the Rays’ lineup is fallible.

With all that said, the Sox have played like garbage the last few weeks. The team went 4-6 in its last 10 and lost five in a row before winning the last three. I’ll try to be an optimist and say that the Sox will win in five games.