Snobs vs. Slobs

I’ll let Shorr take this later today—Cub fan that he is—but I wanted to throw my two cents in about the Cub trade for Rich Harden and Louisiana native Chad Gaudin.

A few points before we dive into the numbers:

• I wonder if this move is a countermove to the Brewers dealing for CC Sabathia. The Brewers saved about 15-20 runs in the Sabathia move and I wonder if Jim Hendry and Co. thought the Cubs needed to make a move in order to stave off the Brewers.


• Rich Harden is Canadian. I’m just sayin’.


• The brief bit I saw of Lou Piniella talking about the deal had Piniella using just about every cliche imaginable (I saw the bit somewhere “>in this video). The ESPN.com trade recap has it in the third paragraph:
  

  “He’s got really good stuff,” Cubs manager Lou Piniella said. “He knows how to win. A welcome addition.”

  Fantastic.

Anyway, onto some rudimentary numbers. The big number is 93, the approximate average number of innings Harden has pitched since being called up in 2003. That is, uh, not good. Harden’s injuries include:

• 2005: Oblique injury


• 2006: Elbow ligament injury


• 2006: Rotator cuff injury


• 2007: UCL sprain


• 2008: Strained subscapularis muscle

That’s really the main storyline with Rich Harden. He’s had exactly one healthy season, 2004. In every conversation about Harden, the qualifier “when he’s healthy” is prevalent.
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For anyone hiding under a rock, Harden is a monster when he’s healthy. His career K:BB ratio is wonderful (523:232), his career ERA is excellent and those numbers are not a mirage. I’m no scout, but having seen him pitch on TV and against the Orioles, I can tell you his stuff is dirtbag filthy. He’s not a particularly efficient pitcher, averaging 98.1 pitchers per start, but with a strikeout pitcher like Harden, that’s going to happen. That the Cubs got Chad Gaudin also in the deal helps a bullpen that could probably use it (though, the Cubs are fifth in the NL in bullpen ERA).

Certainly, pitching in a place like the Oakland Coliseum helped Harden, but VORP has Harden—despite only pitching 77 innings—at 25.2, which is good enough for third on the Cubs. Indeed, it’s only 2.7 wins under Ryan Dempster (27.9), who has pitched a lot more innings.

In short, Harden can pitch.
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But, what did the Cubs give up? The non-Murton players in the deal all appeared on BP.com’s top 11 Cubs prospects, in spots 5 (Josh Donaldson), 6 (Sean Gallagher) and 8 (Eric Pattesron). My take on each of them:

1. Donaldson – At 22, Donaldson is probably too old for his league, but not playing particularly well for the Peoria Chiefs (A-ball) with .217/.276/.349. Sure, he’s a catcher, but he’s only caught for a few years and his bat was supposed to carry him. It’s not carrying him.


2. Gallagher – Less than a month younger than Donaldson, Gallagher’s ceiling wasn’t as high coming into the year, but he actually has big league experience. He split time between the rotation and the bullpen this year, putting up a 49:22 K:BB ratio and a 4.45 ERA. Not great, but promising.


3. Patterson – Handsome Corey’s little brother is 25 and the time is now. Like Murton, Patterson seemed to be in someone’s doghouse and never really got a chance with the team. The scouting report has him as a decent hitter with good speed, but again. 25. AAA. He should be in the majors and the A’s should give him a chance.

Matt Murton has been discussed on this site a lot and he was a bit of a cause for us. But, even so, Murton is not an all-star and Piniella never really gave him a fair shot. Getting something—especially something valuable like Harden—is good.

BP.com’s Christina Kahrl love the deal for the Cubs (subscription required for all these links). Mr. Productive Out calls Harden “Mark Prior Redux.” KLaw alls Harden “an extremely high risk.” Neyer has a similar take.

I’d say it’s a great deal for the Cubs with the caveat that Harden is, basically, made of crystal. Piniella will have to be very careful with the Canadian, but if he is… The Cub road to the playoffs is mostly clear.