Snobs vs. Slobs

In 2002, Jonah Keri (no longer with BP) wrote an excellent piece over at BP about the success cycle. The fourth paragraph explains the concept pretty well:

The cycle is a baseball continuum on which every team resides. To measure a team’s place in the cycle, assess its talent in the majors and minors. Can the players in the organization, mixed with a few trade acquisitions and free agents the team could reasonably sign, yield a competitive team? More precisely, can the team expect to compete while its current core of major-league players remain productive and under contract?

The trade deadline is a big time for a team to think about its place on the success cycle. A competitive team, certainly one with a chance to win the World Series, needs to look to add veteran and rent-a-player pieces. A team in the middle of a rebuilding phase should look to strip any excess older players. A team in a tear-down phase (mostly teams looking to start a new rebuild) should look to trade players who will not be part of the next great team.

(A question every GM should ask while considering trading a veteran is just that: “Will Player X be part of our next great team in xx years?” If the answer is no, it’s probably best to find a good deal for him.)

With some—very few, I’d say—teams, it’s pretty clear that the front office is well-versed in its own players and the success cycle. These teams can rebuild and add pieces at the same time. These are the teams that draft well and don’t make stupid signings. The model organizations (A’s, Braves, Twins) and mega-budget teams (Red Sox, Yankees, Dodgers) are the few and proud who can do these sort of things.

Most other teams, though, need to realize where they are on the success cycle.
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I want to strangle Ken Williams right now.

The Sox are not a good team this year, by any measure. At 48-58, the team is a scant one game ahead of the last-place Royals in the Al Central. The team is last in the league in runs scored and 10th in runs allowed.

Now… This wouldn’t be a problem if the roster was full of young, developing players. Or if the farm system was packed with big-time prospects. Or if the team’s payroll was low enough to make a splash on the free agent market. But, none of those things are true.

The roster’s average age is 28.3, though that’s with new second baseman Danny Richar, 24, and Boone Logan, 22. The payroll is nightmarishly high for a team so close to last place at $109,290,167 (fourth in MLB!). And the farm system… It stinks.

So, what does Ken Williams do at the trade deadline? Nothing.

Jose Contreras, a pitcher who’ll surely not be a part of the next great White Sox team, is still there. Jermain Dye, a 33-yea-old outfielder with a history of injury problems and a World Series MVP (read: He’s not going to make the minimum), is still here. Williams is talking about an extension!

I know it’s sacrilege, but Paul Konerko or Jim Thome should’ve both been on the table in order to get some serious talent back in this organization. I love Juan Uribe, but he should be a chip, too.

One of the inherent problems with the Sox, as a team, is that there isn’t a ton of value to trade. Joe Crede is hurt. Jon Garland and Mark Buehrle are young enough that they might actually be part of the next great Sox team, so I can see sticking with them.

Break up this team. Free up enough payroll to make a run at some premier free agents (Johan Santana, Mark Teixera, etc.) when they become available. Put someone in charge of the draft who knows something about something.
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The two deals Williams did make weren’t great, but were something. Getting anything for Tadahito Iguchi is smart, being that his contract forbade the Sox to offer him arbitration, therefore they wouldn’t get draft picks. Rob Mackowiak was making more then $2.5M this year, so getting a box of donuts for him is good.

But, this team needs to rebuild. This is just not a contending team, especially with Detroit and Cleveland looking like potential AL powers for the next few years. It’s time to drop the deadweight and trade some of these guys.
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I’ll leave you with another BPer quote. This is from Nate Silver yesterday, during a trade deadline chat:

I really don’t get what the White Sox are doing. On the one hand, you re-sign Buehrle and let the clock run out (apparently) on Dye. On the other hand, you trade Iguchi, which isn’t a huge deal but ruins whatever slim chances of contention they might have since there isn’t any middle infield depth in that organization. As I told Bil Burke at lunch today, the White Sox seem to be getting back to their old habits of making sure that they finish in second or third place. Another trade deadline like this and KW might not be long for the job.

Sadly, I feel the same. Williams is running in place.