Snobs vs. Slobs

For the first time in recent memory, the Cubs upstaged the Bears in November, by announcing that they were signing Alfonso Soriano to the biggest deal in team history – 8 years, $136 million.

Before I get into why this is probably the worst contract in the history of the organization, let’s go over the positive aspects of this contract.

In spite of some very obvious holes in his game (inability to get on base or play defense, for example), Soriano is a good hitter. Since 2002, he has been a virtual lock for a .500+ slugging and mid-30’s homers. The only time Soriano has hit fewer than 36 homers in a season since 2002 was in 2004, when he missed 20 games due to an injury… and he still managed to slug .484 and hit 28 homers. Soriano is the rare type of player whose high stolen base total actually helps his offensive output. In a blog I wrote this September, I examined high volume base stealers and asked, “Do they really help their team?” The conclusion I came to was, when a player is already slugging or getting on base at a decent pace and is stealing bases at a productive clip, a lot of stolen bases really can be valuable. The players who best exemplified this were Alfonso Soriano and Carl Crawford.

As a fan, you have to like what this move symbolizes. The last time the Cubs made a serious grab at THE premiere free agent on the market was probably when the Cubs acquired Andre Dawson from the Expos. With this move, the Cubs are making a move (albeit a misguided one) that is telling the rest of the league that they’re serious about contending. So kudos to the Cubs for manning up for a change and getting who is probably the best player available on the market.

From a non-statistical perspective, Soriano is a really fun player to watch. He isn’t big and hulking – he is generously listed at 6’1”, 180 – yet he can hit the ball a mile using his giant tree trunk of a bat. In any given at-bat, Soriano might hit the ball onto Waveland avenue, and he might swing at a pitch that goes 55 feet. Plus, he is very fast, which is also always fun to see.

However, no matter how much fun Soriano might be to watch, it doesn’t change the many, many, many factors of why this is just an awful contract for the Cubs… a contract that I believe will go down as the worst contract in the history of the organization. It’s difficult to even know where to begin.

First and foremost, signing Alfonso Soriano doesn’t really help the Cubs become a much better team. I have written countless times in this space that the Cubs’ principal organizational problem is their ignorance of walks – the hitters don’t draw any, and the pitchers give up too many (the offense and pitching ranked last and first in the NL in each of these categories last season, respectively). As a result, the Cubs’ offense has consistently low on-base percentages, which has them depending on a lot of solo homers and bases-empty doubles for runs. And as we all know, solo homers and bases-empty doubles will not score you a lot of runs. Alfonso Soriano is not a high on-base percentage player. Soriano’s .351 on-base percentage in his 2006 campaign was his highest full-season total by about 13 points. As he enters his age 31 season, we should expect Soriano’s on-base percentage to be closer to his career mark of .325. Home runs are all well and good, but the Cubs still aren’t going to have anyone on base next season when they’re hit, which will lead to lots of solo homers, which will lead to lots of frustrating afternoons at Wrigley Field… again.

Second, where is Soriano going to play? The Cubs are apparently thinking of putting him in center field, which would be such a disaster that it’s difficult to put my mind around it. Soriano is actually a better left fielder than he was a second-baseman (not saying much, considering he was a historically lousy 2B), but putting him in center field, a position considerably more difficult and more important than left, would be a terrible idea (and if you think Soriano’s a questionable defender now, wait until he’s 35 or older). The Cubs should slide Jacque Jones over to center. Jones has 159 games experience in center and is clearly the best outfielder of the ones the Cubs currently have.

Third, the length and size of this contract is, for lack of a better word, insane. I am of the school of thought that you don’t give an eight year contract to anyone that has a skill set that doesn’t closely resemble Barry Bonds, Manny Ramirez, or Albert Pujols. And you especially do not give that contract to a 31 year-old coming off a career year.

The Soriano signing reeks of desperation, and compares very closely to the Mark DeRosa contract in a lot of ways: the Cubs are highly overpaying to get their hands on two players coming off years that scream statistical anomaly, who are likely entering the decline phases of their careers. Just as I did when I examined the DeRosa signing, I’m going to look at Soriano’s career numbers before and after the career year in 2006:

Soriano 2006: .277/.351/.560
Soriano Career: .280/.325/.510
Soriano Pre-2006: .280/.320/.500

Not to discount Soriano’s fantastic 40 homer/40 stolen base/40 double season, but if his 2006 campaign was closer to his pre-2006 career averages, there’s simply no way Soriano would have landed the contract that he did. The Cubs have been suckered into a very long deal by a player entering his age 31 season who had some very sexy numbers last year. Even at Wrigley Field, it is highly unlikely that Soriano will have a repeat performance of last season (especially considering he out-homered his previous best by 8) ever again. The prospect of the Cubs being on the hook for $17 million a year for a player who will be 38 years old at the time the contract ends should frighten every Cubs fan to his or her core. Does anyone remember the last time the Cubs owed a player in his mid-thirties more than $15 million a year? I’ll try to refresh your memory. He was a player who, entering his age 31 season, had already had far more success than Soriano, including a home run title and an MVP award, and when his skills took a predictable age-related turn for the worse, he was booed out of town and the Cubs were forced to trade him and eat most of the rest of his bloated contract. Hmmmm…. whom could I possibly be referring to?

Depending on how quickly Soriano declines, and depending on the terms of the deal (there may be opt-out/buoyout clauses in there for the player and/or the team; terms have not yet been released), the Cubs could find themselves with a real albatross of a contract on their hands starting in as soon as 2008. Again, depending on opt-out/buyout terms of this deal, there is basically no way this contract won’t turn into a burden for the Cubs by the end of the 2011 season, when Soriano will have 5/10 rights, will be headed into his age 36 season in 2012, and will still be owed $17 million a year for three more seasons.