Everybody’s Hot for A.J.
Rumors have been flying for weeks about Florida’s A.J. Burnett. It seems that every team outside of the Devil Rays has been rumored to be in the Burnett sweepstakes at one point or another. It’s almost a definite that Burnett will be traded, because he’ll be a free agent after this season. Today on Baseball Prospectus (subscription required), Will Carrol reported that the two teams with the best shot of landing Burnett are the Red Sox and the White Sox. The White Sox have reportedly offered their top pitching prospect, Brandon “The Future” McCarthy, and their set-up man, Damaso Marte. The Red Sox have offered their top pitching prospect, Anibal Sanchez, and starting pitcher Bronson Arroyo.
While A.J. Burnett is having a very good season (3.48 ERA in 132 IP), I hardly see how he is worth giving up your top pitching prospect plus (in the Red Sox’s case) the most consistent starter on your staff or (in the White Sox’s case) the best relief pitcher on the team other than the Alien Inhabiting Dustin Hermanson’s Body. Don’t get me wrong, A.J. Burnett is a very good pitcher with electric stuff. But he doesn’t have the greatest walk rate, and (more importantly) has a long history of injury problems. Let’s compare the career numbers of A.J. Burnett to the career numbers of another power pitcher with electric stuff who also has a history of walks and injury problems:
Pitcher A:
Age: 28
Avg. Starts Per Season*: 18.4
Earned Run Average: 3.77
Strikeouts per 9 Innings: 7.87
Walks per 9 Innings: 4.00
WHIP: 1.28
OPS Allowed: .667
Pitcher B:
Age: 28
Avg. Starts Per Season: 23.4
Earned Run Average: 3.68
Strikeouts per 9 Innings: 10.41
Walks per 9 Innings: 4.37
WHIP: 1.26
OPS Allowed: .675
If you’re going to be bidding as wildly as the Soxes are for A.J. Burnett (pitcher A), then why not bid just as wildly for Kerry Wood (pitcher B)? They have very similar numbers, are the same age, and have a similar injury past (indeed, Wood has averaged 5 starts per year more over the course of his career). Of course, there’s an easy, obvious answer to that: Kerry Wood is injured right now, whereas A.J. Burnett has only been injured in the (very recent) past. Also, A.J. Burnett is a free agent after this season, and Kerry Wood is not. I use this example not to suggest that the Cubs should trade Kerry Wood, but to illustrate the pitchers’ similarities and to question the intelligence of the Soxes offering so much for Burnett.
Any GM would be wary about trading for Kerry Wood, and I don’t see why GMs aren’t just as wary about Burnett due to his recent past. Just because Burnett is okay right now doesn’t mean that he’s going to be okay next year, or later this year. In 2003, Burnett started just 4 games. In 2004, Burnett spent about 50 days last season on the DL, and only started 19 games. Kerry Wood had a full season in ‘03, started 22 games last year, and has crashed and burned this year. Burnett has started an average of 18.4 games a year during his career – that means he has spent about 40% of his career wasting away on the DL, which, believe it or not, is even more than Kerry Wood. As many players before have shown, injury-prone players tend to get injured again.
I’ll concede that Burnett has a high ceiling. If he is healthy and can keep his stuff under control (both of which he has done this year), he can be one of the best starters in the game. However, I just don’t understand why Ken Williams or Theo Epstein would be willing to give away so much to get a pitcher with so much potential for injury.
*—Rookie year ommitted; was late season call-up


