Snobs vs. Slobs

When Frank Thomas was ready to come back, the Ozzeroo made a lot of noise about him not playing everyday. My worry was that Ozzie hates Thomas, because Hurt is the anti-Ozzie:

As we’ve pointed out, Ozzie is not too keen on Frank Thomas. Ozzie was an impatient, slap-hitting middle infielder, while Thomas is a very patient, power hitting DH. Hurt complains a lot and, quite frankly, rightfully so on a lot of issues (he’s a vastly underrated player, in the grand scheme of things, a HOFer who will never make the hall).

As well, I pointed out later that Frank Thomas is not the player he was in his MVP years, but he can do some thing:

Instead of the slugging/walking maniac he used to be, Hurt is now a guy who can take a walk for you and maybe hit 25 HR.

Well. Ozzie’s hand has been forced. Frank Thomas has been the exact thing I expected, only with more power. After his game-winning home last night, here’s Hurt’s line this year: .231/.333/.712. It appears Frank Thomas has become a Three True Outcomes guy, armed with a .481 ISO SLG and a .102 ISO OBP.

He’s not this guy:
1993: .317/.426/.607
1994: .353/.487..729

He’s not the guy who won two MVPs, but he is a guy who can work a pitcher. He sees the most pitchers on the team (4.18 pitcher per PA, tied with Paul Konerko), so he can help tire out pitchers.

Thomas, as I predicted, isn’t the player he used to be. But, when he actually hits the ball, it goes a mile. When he doesn’t get on base, he can stroll, either into first base or around the bases. Luckily, these skills have forced Ozzie’s hand, and Hurt has played a great deal.

And the team is better for it.

With the All-Star Game upcoming, we at Snobs vs. Slobs decided to have a little discussion as to who should represent each league in Detroit this year. Yesterday, we dealt with the visitors, the National League. Today, we debate the home squad, the American League:

AT: OK, at catcher I’ve got Jason “The Captain” Varitek.

RG: Me, too.

AT: He’s good.

RG: He’s three wins better than Posada. Plus, he’s got leadership skeeeeells.

AT: He’s leading AL catchers in BA, OBP and SLG. .317/.386/.567

RG: Yep, he can hit.

AT: Yeah, and his name sounds like some sort of dot-com company

RG: As I’d like to vote for Chipper as the NL third baseman, I’d love to vote for Pudge Rodriguez, but I just can’t. He’s been OK this year, but Varitek has been outstanding.

AT: Yeah, he’s by far the best catcher in the AL this year, offensively..

RG: Meh, defense. Who cares? I care much more about his leadership skeeeeells.

AT: For the record, Joe Mauer has 10 win shares to Varitek’s nine.

AT: Okay, at first I have Teixeira

RG: I do, as well. This is easy.

AT: I’m surprised you resisted the temptation to vote for Konerko. He’s turned it around.

RG: Well, he’s no. 4 in VORP in the AL, but it’s been a down year for AL first basemen. I mean, I like Konerko, but Tex is clearly better. He has a slightly better OBP, .70 points higher in slugging.

AT: Teixeira is a stud. He’s 25. He has 20 homers. He’s hitting .292/.363/.564. He’s 25

RG: The Rangers have a very, very nice squad this year. Everyone can hit, save for whomever is catching that day.

AT: Yeah, and nobody in the rotation not named Kenny Rogers can pitch.

AT: Okay, two agreements so far… who you got at 2B?

RG: Like Derrek Lee, I’d really like to not vote for the alien inhabiting Brian Roberts’ body, but he’s so much better than Soriano that I have to vote for him. The alien inhabiting Brian Roberts’ body is my pick.

AT: Indeed, that alien has charmed us all, and I too must vote for it. It’s hitting .363/.434/.603 for a 2B.

AT: That’s all I have to say about that.

RG: Yeah, 48 v. 25. That’s Roberts v. Soriano in VORP. It ain’t close.

AT: Yeah. he’s crazy, crazy good this year. He’s got 32 walks to 38 strikeouts, Ross! Would you like your second baseman to be slugging .600? I know I’d like mine to be…

AT: Okay, at shortstop I feel there’s another pretty easy choice, and that’s Brian Roberts’ double-play partner, Miguel Tejada.

RG: Yep, but I almost voted for Jeter. Jeter’s second in VORP, but it’s not really close. Tejads leads by 8 points in VORP.

AT: He’s at .318/.366/.606. I don’t think there’s any question that Miguel Tejada is the best shortstop in baseball, by far.

RG: Yeah, he’s awesome. He’s a joy to watch, as well. He’s got nice range, he’s very boisterous (he’s definitely be the captain of the Jovial Latin team) and he can hit it.

AT: He put on one of the more amazing shows I’ve ever seen in the Home Run Derby in Houston last year (15 homers in the second round last year, and 27 homers on the night, both HRD records). You’d never think that with his size (he’s 5’9”!) he could go up against the likes of Pujols and Bonds… but he knocked the crap out of the ball – hit a couple 500+ feet.

RG: What a great signing by the Orioles.

AT: Indeed. So, we are 4-for-4 on the infield so far. Who do you have at 3rd?

RG: I’ve Alex Rodriguez.

AT: Another easy choice.

RG: Like all the choices so far, it’s not even close. He’s at 45.7 VORP vs. 25.5 for the second-ranked third baseman (Brandon Inge).

AT: Yeah, A-Rod is the guy at third. Even though I hate him now because of his “trade me” and slap-at-the-ball-in-the-ALCS antics, you’ve gotta respect the guy. He used to be the best SS in baseball, now he’s the best 3B.

RG: He’s awesome. Plain and simple. What can’t he do?

AT: Yes, he’s two win shares ahead of Inge. What can’t he do? Well, he’s struggling in the field this year. Hes’ made 10 errors already, he made 13 all of last year.

RG: You again with the defense. I say “big whoop.” Defense schmefense.

AT: He only has 0.9 fielding win shares, which is the reason he’s not leading AL 3B in win shares by more (Melvin Mora leads AL 3B with 2.5 fielding win shares).

AT: Yeah, big whoop is right. He’s leading the AL in OPS (by one little point over The Alien Inhabiting Brian Roberts’ Body) – .336/.433/.601. He also has 20 homers. Thus, A-rod gives us a unanimous infield.

RG: Yeah, the infield in the AL is full of no-brainers. Who’ve you got in the outfield?

AT: Okay, LF: David Dellucci and his .407 OBP, Johnny Damon, and Vlad.

RG: I have Vlad, Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez. Ramirez is fifth in VORP for AL outfielders, but he’s an example of a future HOFer over the non-HOF guys.

AT: I was really close to voting for Manny Ramirez, but I feel like Dellucci is just having too good of a season to ignore.

RG: Dellucci is eighth in VORP. He’s a nice player, but I had to go with Manny. He’s just an amazing hitter. For the record, Gary Sheffield is first in VORP for AL outfielders, but I am not a big fan.

AT: Sheff is first in Win Shares, too, but I voted for Vlad because Vlad, to me, is the quintessential All-Star. He is the type of player that is really fun to watch – he is fun to watch field, he is fun to watch throw, and he is lots of fun to watch hit. Sheffield is fun too, but he’s getting old and doesn’t bring the razzle-dazzle that Vlad does. And isn’t that what we want from the All-Star game, Ross? Just a little razzle-dazzle?

RG: Yeah, I agree. Can’t beat Vlad. He’s 3 points of VORP behind Sheff and he missed 18 games with a bad back. That’s amazing.

AT : Vlad is a great player. As for Dellucci, he’s 31 years old, and I just think he’s a great story. He’s an eight-year veteran, he’s never really played a full season (he got 416 ABs with Arizona in ‘98), but now he’s got a full-time job in Texas and is hitting .258/.403/.505.

AT: Manny’s one of my favorite players, but Dellucci is leading all left fielders in OPS, and I think that’s kind of cool and he’s leading ALL AL outfielders in on-base percentage.

RG: Yes, but I think Dellucci is a good example of a fluke player. He’s a career .261/.347/.428, 31-year-old guy. This is not him, and he’s not (like Lee or Roberts) so much better than everyone else that he’s deserving.

AT: I agree. He’s never going to have a year like this again, in all likelihood, which is part of the reason I’m voting for him. And the rest of the field isn’t so much better than Dellucci that I shouldn’t vote for him… he’s third in OPS, first in OBP among AL OF

RG: They’re showing the leading vote-getters in the AL and I voted for everyone but Ichiro! The OF vote-getters are Vlad, Ichiro!, and Manny so far.

AT: Ah. So no Johnny Damon.

RG: Right.

AT: What about DH? Not like it’s not pretty clear-cut too.

RG: I voted for David Ortiz, but I really wanted to vote for The Big Hurt.

AT: No, I understand that, and Ramirez definitely turned it around after a couple of slow months, and he’ll probably get the most votes, and that’s fine. He’s hitting .273/.357/.549, so he’s certainly deserving.

AT: David Ortiz is the easy, obvious choice at DH. Thomas has been good, but he’s been back for like 2 weeks. He’s hitting .305/.386/.589. He is coming to destroy your village.

RG: Mothers, lock up your daughters, Big Papi is coming to town.

To recap:
Ross’ ballot:
C- J. Varitek
1B- M. Texeira
2B- B. Roberts
SS- M. Tejada
3B- A. Rodriguez
OF- v. Guerrero
OF- J. Damon
OF- M. Ramirez
DH- D. Ortiz

Taft’s ballot:
C- J. Varitek
1B- M. Texeira
2B- B. Roberts
SS- M. Tejada
3B- A. Rodriguez
LF- D. Dellucci
CF- J. Damon
RF- V. Guerrero
DH- D. Ortiz

With the All-Star Game upcoming, we at Snobs vs. Slobs decided to have a little discussion as to who should represent each league in Detroit this year. Like the MVP voting, nearly everyone has a different idea of what makes an “All-Star,” but Taft and I agreed much more than we disagreed.

(I can’t really speak for Taft, but I really hate the All-Star Game. Because of the nature of small sample size, a lot of players get rewarded for having good first halves, yet there is no ASG for second-half performers. Guys like Paul LoDuca [quick starters but big-time faders in the second half] are always rewarded, yet end up with mediocre season numbers, while Chipper Jones won the 1999 MVP, yet wasn’t on the All-Star Team. In 2000, Frank Thomas was second in the AL in MVP voting. He was not an All-Star.

Moreover, the fact that the winner determines home-field advantage in the World Series is ridiculous. That the fans vote for all the starters, except the most important one, the starting pitcher, is ridiculous. That each team [including the Royals and Rockies] must be represented is ridiculous. It’s just a ridiculous thing.)

With that said, here is our discussion on the National League:

AT: Okay. Basically, I give preference to players who are having exceptional – not merely good, but exceptional seasons… players like that this year fitting that criteria are Brian Roberts and Derrek Lee. Beyond that, I tend to vote for players who are amongst the league leaders in OPS and have been good players in years past as well… there’s no sense in voting for a guy who’s first in the league in OPS if he’s ahead by two points and is coming off consecutive seasons of .250/.320/.400 hitting.

RG: OK, so no flukes?

AT: Well… no, flukes are allowed, but they have to be exceptional flukes. Like, who knows if Dave Roberts is going to hit .363/.434/.603 for the rest of the year? He probably won’t—he probably won’t have as good of a season in his career as he is having this year. But should he be rewarded for having such an exceptional first half? I think so.

RG: I guess. But, that plays to my problem with the ASG: there’s no second-half ASG. Too many players have OK first halves and end up with monster numbers. The example I always cite is Chipper Jones in 1999. Not an All-Star, but an MVP.

RG: The way I pick the team is a bit stickier. I look at the leading VORP getters at each position and pick off whom (out of the top five) says “All-Star” to me. Generally, this means I’ll vote for a guy who’s had a HOF career rather than a fluke guy, but not always.

RG: As we’ll see, some postitions have no clear All-Star, so I tend to simply pick the best guy in VORP for that position.

AT: Sure, but there are examples of that every year. The All-Star Game isn’t that important. Being named an All-Star is nice, but for a player like Chipper Jones, that’s just one less “ASG” that will go onto his plaque.

RG: Well, maybe not. the BBWA looks at that sort of thing, and I don’t want a BBWA member to say “Hey, Chipper Jones only made five All-Star Games, he shouldn’t be in the HOF.” They say stuff like that (one of the players I voted for may be an example of that).

AT: That’s reasonable. I tended to pick Win Shares when I couldn’t make up my mind.

RG: Anyway, let’s get to our votes.

AT: Okay, shall we start with the visitors, the National Leaguers?

AT: At catcher, I have Michael Barrett.

RG: I have Mike Piazza.

AT: The Pizza Man? But Ross, he is no longer delivering.

RG: Actually, he is. He ranks second in VORP for NL catchers behind Paul LoDuca. And, the difference is a scant .8 points of VORP. So, this is a good example of a clear HOFer as my choice.

AT: He’s hitting .264/.323/.439 with 8 homers.

RG: He’s slugging .439 in one of the hardest parks to hit in the NL. Not bad for a catcher.

AT: Barrett: .273/.311/.468, 8 HR. Very similar numbers, Piazza’s OBP is a bit better.

RG: Even if Wrigley didn’t play to hitters more than Schea (which it is, this year), Barrett’s only slugging .468. That’s not enough of an edge to beat Piazza in my eyes. Piazza isn’t having a Mike Piazza season, but his 60% seasons are better than nearly everone else in the NL catching.

AT: Okay, but Barrett is tied for first in win shares for a catcher. He isn’t a great defensive catcher, but he has 2.6 fielding win shares compared to Piazza’s 0.6 – the worst among regulars in the NL. If you get a single, it’s a double with Piazza catching.

RG: Yeah, I don’t care about defense. I know Piazza sucks behind the plate, but he has been so good for so long, he just screams “All-Star” to me.

AT: That’s fine. I’m not going to argue long and hard about Piazza playing catcher… he’s had a great career and despite the fact that he’s thrown 5 out of 47 base stealers so far this season (9.6%), he’s the best hitting catcher ever, and this will probably be his last season as a catcher, so might as well let him go out with an ASG appearance.

RG: Right. Exactly.

AT: I think we might have a more intriguing argument at first base, where clearly I’m voting for Derrek Lee.

RG: Yeah, I am, too.

AT: You just can’t resist that .388/.466/.719.

RG: As much as I like Pujols, and he fits my methodology pretty well (future HOFer, great career v. career-year), Lee is blowing everyone out of the water.

RG: Already (in late June), he is over 18 points of VORP ahead of Pujols. Basically, he’s six wins better than Pujols right now. That’s absurd.

AT: Believe it or not, he is only leading Pujols by two win shares right now, but he is leading NL 1B in batting and fielding win shares.

RG: Plus, I feel confident that Pujols will start at DH.

AT: I think that Lee will start at DH. The fans get to vote in the starters, and at last count, Pujols had about 100,000 votes on Lee.

RG: That’s OK. I think we can agree that they both deserve to be there.

AT: Absolutely. Pujols is having another exceptional year, Derrek Lee is having the best year out of anybody.

RG: Right. Ain’t that a bitch, though? Pujols has all these great years behind Bonds. Then, Bonds gets hurt and an alien inhabits Derrek Lee’s body. Thatsucks for Pujols.

AT: Oh, boo hoo. He hits .330/.400/.600 every year. He will win his fair share of awards.

RG: Yeah, it sucks for him. What else can he do? He’s hit like Ted Williams-lite and has nothing to show for it.

AT: At second base, I have Jeff “Molester ‘Stache” Kent from the LA Dodgers

RG: Yeah, I have Kent, too.

RG: He’s No. 1 in VORP and I think he’s a borderline HOFer. Another ASG won’t hurt his chances at the Hall.

AT: Kent’s hitting .290/.367/.509 in a tough hitter’s park, he’s got 14 homers… he’s 37 years old. He’s clearly the best offensive 2B in the NL. He’s got a career .506 slugging percentage. He’s clearly a Hall of Famer, and I think he’ll get voted in.

AT: Maybe not on the first ballot, but he deserves to go in on the first ballot.

RG : He might. If he’s compared to his comtemporaries (Biggio and Alomar), he does not compare favorably.

AT: I don’t know. He has a hell of a lot more homers than both of them and Alomar won’t go in on the first ballot, I don’t think. His star really fell with his collapse in NY.

RGBiggio has more ASGs and is associated with a single team. Writers love that stuff. Also, more Rawlings Gold Gloves. Better OBP.

AT: Time will tell. Maybe they all will go in. I think they all deserve to.

RG: I agree.

RG: Yes, anyway, this is not about Jeff Kent’s chances at the Hall.

AT: No. It’s about the showtown in Motown. This one counts, Ross.

RG: Yes. It does.

RG: I voted for Felipe Lopez at SS.

AT: As did I, although I really toyed with voting for Eckstein

RG: After Lopez, there is no one in the NL worth voting for.

AT: But I just couldn’t. He’s so tiny. And he needs to run like 3 steps to throw the ball.

AT: Plus, he’s on the Cardinals, which never works in a player’s favor when trying to land on my All-Star ballot.

RG: I’m not in love with Lopez, but the next guy is Bill Hall, and he’s not exactly ASG-worthy.

AT: But Lopez is having a great season for the Reds – he’s hitting.301/.348/.551 and has 13 homers, the most of any NL shortstop

AT: All of the good hitting shortstops are in the AL, I should say.

RG: Yeah, he’s a very good player, I’m just not familiar with him.

RG: Well, Jimmy Rollins, Khalil Greene and Rafael Furcal aren’t terrible. They’re just not All-Stars.

AT: What happened to Furcal this year?

RG: He stinks.

AT: He super-stinks. .228/.283/.355

RG: He can’t get on base, he can’t drive the ball and he isn’t even playing good defense. I’ve heard speculation that he’s hurt, but I don’t know that for sure.

AT: It’s weird… Khalil Greene is a player that would be a good guy to vote for in the All-Star game. – he finished 2nd in ROY voting last year, he’s slick with the glove. But this year he’s hitting .249/.292/.396. Oof. Bad year to be a shortstop in the NL. We all know what happened to Nomar

RG: Yeah, Green seems to be the only guy on the Padres who stinks this year and Nomar’s injury still looks disgusting. Even when I know it’s coming, I’m always suprised how much that looks like it hurts.

AT: Okay, at third base I have another Cub, Aramis Ramirez.

RG: Yeah, I have David Wright.

AT: My second choice.

RG: As you have Cardinals, I have Cubs. I cannot vote for the Artists Formerly Known as the Snugglies.

RG: Wright is second in VORP and he seems to me to be more of an “All-Star” than A-Ram. I think Wright’s going to see a lot of ASGs in his career. He’s a very good player.

AT: Well, I agree with you, Wright’s going to be a great player… but you can’t say that he’s “more” of an All-Star than Grimace. He’s one of those guys who didn’t make the All-Star team last year but wound up with monster numbers: .318/.373/.578. This year he’s at it again: .302/.362/.567 with 17 homers and 20 doubles. He’s leading 3B in OPS.

RG: Yeah, and a grand slam Saturday that I could’ve done without.

RG: I agree, A-Ram deserves to be there. I just can’t, as a Sox fan, vote for more than one Cub.

AT: Okay, fair enough. After all, it is the all-star game, and personal biases are as good of a reason as any to not vote for someone

AT: Speaking of which, that is why Jim Edmonds is not in my outfield.

RG: Right.

AT: Now, I should say that when I vote for an All-Star outfield, I vote for one at each position, even though that’ snot required. That’s just the way I do it.

RG: I don’t do it that way, although it worked out like that this year in both leagues for me.

RG: I have Andruw Jones, Jason Bay and Bobby Abreu.

AT: Left to right, I have Adam Dunn, Andruw Jones and Bobby Abreu

AT: Adam Dunn is having a great season, but I half voted for him because of all of those comments he made about his Sharper Image chair.

RG: Bay is second in VORP among NL outfielders, Jones fourth and Abreu first.

RG: Miguel Cabrera is third, but I figure Willis will start the game, so the Marlins don’t need another starter. Stupid reason, but, whatever.

RG: I wanted to vote for Dunn, as he’s a favorite of mine, but he hasn’t done much this year, as compared to some other guys.

AT: In Win Shares, it’s Bobby Abreu, Brian Giles, Luis Gonzalez, Adam Dunn and Jim Edmonds in the top six. I almost voted for Giles but Dunn had those good quotes.

AT: Hasn’t done much? He’s got a .956 OPS!!

RG: Yeah, at the Great American (S)Mallpark. You could slug .400 there.

AT: .246/.391/.566

AT: Dude, he’s still getting on base 39 percent of the time. He has 20 homers. That’s nothing to sneeze at.

RG: .305/.384/.567

AT: Who cares about the batting average? Look how much he walks

RG: Bay’s line this year: .305/.384/.567. Bay gets on base slightly less, but slugs the same in a harder park to hit.

RG: Trust me, I wanted to vote for Dunn. He’s wonderfully entertaining and a TTO (Three True Outcomes) player. I love the guy.

AT: I think that perhaps we should both defer to Brian Giles… because his numbers are .279/.413/.496. PetCo is really tough on lefties, and I think we’ll both agree that getting on base is more important than slugging, and Giles is doing it better than both Bay and Dunn. But he only has 9 dingers. That’s very unsexy.

RG: Yes, Giles is fifth in VORP, Dunn sixth. I like Giles a lot. But Bay’s been better, 6 points of VORP better (two wins).

AT: Second in win shares and fifth in fielding win shares. I’m changing my LF vote to Giles. If only I could go back in time and recast all of my 25 electronic All-star Ballots…

AT: Somebody’s gotta represent those Friars.

RG: Dude, Jake Peavy.

AT: And their entire bullpen.

To recap:

Taft’s ballot
C- M. Barrett
1B- D. Lee
2B- J. Kent
SS- F. Lopez
3B- A. Ramirez
LF- A. Dunn
CF- A. Jones
RF- B. Abreu

Ross’ ballot
C- M. Piazza
1B- D. Lee
2B- J. Kent
SS- F. Lopez
3B- D. Wright
OF- J. Bay
OF- A. Jones
OF- B. Abreu

Back tomorrow with the AL.

As our readers may remember, Taft and I made a bet before the first Red Line series:

“AT: Okay, I have an idea for the wager: how about we bet on the season series instead of just this weekend?
RG: What will we do if they split?
...
RG: Why don’t we go by runs for/against.
RG: If they split, whomever has the smaller run differential wins.
RG: Like, let’s say they split, but the Sox win one of the game, like 25-3.
...
AT: Oh, I see. Yeah, that’s a great idea. I’m assuming we would take the combined scores from all the games?”

Well, well, well. As they say on the Weather Channel, let’s go to the map:

Date Score Winner Sox runs Cubs runs
5/20 5-1 Sox 5 1
5/21 5-3 Sox 10 4
5/22 4-3 Cubs 13 8
6/24 12-2 Sox 25 10
6/25 6-2 Cubs 27 16
6/26 2-0 Cubs 27 18

The teams split the season series (as Taft predicted: “AT: Okay, unofficially, I would like to proclaim that I am predicting a split.”), but the Sox scored nine more runs, thanks to an outburst Friday afternoon. Needless to say, I was breathing quite a bit easier after that game.

(In fact, I got quite a bit cocky after that game. I called Taft and left him a message talking shit and asking what size hat he wears, as I have two different early-80s era hats in different sizes. I felt like a damned fool yesterday when the Cubs spent two days making the Sox look stupid with some excellent pitching. Anyway…)

We will have the photo of Taft in the Harold Baines-era Sox after next weekend. I will be in Chicago for the Fourth and (hopefully) will have the honor of taking the photo myself. An empty victory, maybe, (after all, they did split) but I’ll take what I can get.

After all, I’m a Sox fan.

Presumably because he understands what his skill set is, Handsome Corey Patterson has resisted batting in the leadoff spot this season. However, Dusty Baker and his coaching staff have never seemed to understand that batting Handsome Corey in the leadoff spot is a terrible idea. They truly believe that because he is fast, he will be an asset in the leadoff spot, despite his career .300 on-base percentage (and a career .335ish OBP in the minors), and absolutely atrocious .280 OBP this season.

But things are different now, because Handsome Corey has embraced the role! See, it’ll be totally different with Corey in the leadoff spot now that he has accepted the role. Before, he was just resisting the role and therefore the leadoff hitter’s skill set. Now that he’s no longer resisting, he can start taking walks and hitting for average!

Patterson has responded just as well as we might expect him to in his to his return to the leadoff spot so far, going 0-for-10 with 6 strikeouts and no walks. Patterson has had a terrible June, batting .165/.205/.241. My theory is that the reason Patterson has “embraced” the leadoff role all of a sudden is that he hasn’t been hitting for power like he usually does. He hasn’t homered since May 27 against the Rockies, and isn’t producing with runners on base – Patterson has only 3 RBI in June despite hitting lower in the order for most of the month. If I am to believe what I have read and heard many times over from journalists who cover the Cubs, Patterson sees himself as a middle-of-the-order run producer. Perhaps this slump has him questioning his power skills. Obviously he wants to help the team in any way possible, and he’s not doing it at the bottom of the order, so maybe he thinks that since he isn’t hitting for power right now, he will be able to change his style and help his team at the top of the order.

However, there’s no reason to believe that Patterson can do that. As I mentioned before, Patterson has been pretty much a .275/.335/.450 player his entire career (both majors and minors), and hasn’t shown any progression in improving his plate discipline or strike zone judgement. In fact, Patterson’s plate discipline and strike zone judgement based on his BB:K ratio has gotten even worse. At this point last year, Patterson had a BB:K ratio of 22:58 (0.38). This year, it’s 13:69 (0.19).

Patterson is just in a slump, albeit a bad one. As soon as he comes out of the slump and starts hitting homers again, people are going to be wondering why a guy with a .300 OBP and 20 home runs is leading off. Until then, the Cubs are going to have an automatic out at the top of the lineup. Neither scenario will help the team. Meanwhile, Todd Walker is hitting .301/.357/.476 a BB:K ratio of 9:9, with lots of gap power but little home run power. But clearly, Dusty and the Cubs management believe that speed is the single most important attribute for a leadoff hitter to have. Of course, if that was the case, Otis Nixon would have been a first ballot hall of famer.

After going 3-for-5 with two more homers today in a frustrating loss to the Brewers, Derrek Lee raised his batting average to .395, his home run total to 22 and his RBI total to 64. Lee currently leads the league in hitting and homers, and is 2 RBI behind the other hot Lee, Carlos, for the league lead in that category.

Lee’s amazing season is getting more press, and as we near the All-Star break, baseball writers everywhere are starting to wonder if Derrek Lee can become the first triple crown winner since Carl Yastremzemezseskecesasdfrgaeski did it in 1967.

What’s most amazing to me is that Derrek Lee has actually been better in the month of July than he had been in the other two months of the season. This is particularly amazing to me for a couple of reasons:
a) Lee hit .419/.490/.767 in April and .313/.424/.646 in May. It’s hard to have a month better than either of these months, but Lee has done just that, hitting .464/.521/.810 so far in June.
b) Lee is a career .266/.362/.491 hitter. That’s nothing to sneeze at, but there’s a huge difference between an .853 OPS and a 1.211 OPS, which is what Lee is currently hitting.

You have to wonder if Lee will be able to keep it up. Conventional wisdom says no, but Derrek Lee has been defying conventional wisdom since April 1 this year.

There’s no real point to this post, except to gush a little bit about Lee as well as share some interesting things that have been written about him recently:

He’s on the front page of ESPN.com’s baseball section today. Tim Keown has written a feature on him (subscription to ESPN Insider required) for the next issue of ESPN the Magazine. Today’s Rob Neyer column (subscription to ESPN Insider required) speculates on whether or not Lee could win the triple crown this year (Rob’s answer: probably not). Over at the Hardball Times they looked at Derrek Lee’s Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP), and found that (unsurprisingly) Derrek Lee leads the world in BABIP, as well as tons of other offensive categories. Proving that he truly has arrived, Lee will host this week’s edition of This Week in Baseball.

The Cubs head to the Bronx tonight for the first time since the 1938 World Series, which the Cubs lost in 4 games. This weekend should be an interesting matchup; the Yankees’ struggles have been well documented this season, but they are coming off a series sweep of the Pirates. The good news for the Cubs is that they won’t have to face Randy Johnson. The bad news is that the Yankees lineup contains Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Gary Sheffield, Jorge Posada and Hideki Matsui.

In addition to the pitching matchups I always do, I am proud to add a new feature to the Series Preview section: Hot and Cold. While past performances against pitchers are interesting to know, I feel that it is just as interesting to know which hitters have been hot and cold as of late.

Hot like Lava (statistics over the course of the past 7 days):
Cubs:
Michael Barrett, .294 BA, .588 SLG, 2 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Jeromy Burnitz, .478 BA, .520 OBP, .913 SLG, 3 HR, 2 BB, 1 K
Todd Hollandsworth, .421 BA, .789 SLG, 4 2B, 1 HR, 1 K
Derrek Lee, .455 BA, .520 OBP, .864 SLG, 1 HR, 6 2B, 2 BB, 4 K
Aramis Ramirez, .500 BA, .875 SLG, 2 HR, 3 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Todd Walker, .526 BA, .684 SLG, 1 2B, 1 3B, 0 BB, 1 K

Yankees:
Robinson Cano, .409 BA, .480 OBP, .545 SLG, 3 2B, 2 BB, 4 K
Jason Giambi, .385 BA, .579 OBP, .769 SLG, 2 2B, 1 HR, 5 BB, 3 K
Derek Jeter, .385 BA, .448 OBP, .500 SLG, 2 2B, 3 BB, 2 K
Hideki Matsui, .391 BA, .440 OBP, .739 SLG, 2 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB, 3 K
Jorge Posada, .438 BA, .500 OBP, .875 SLG, 1 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB, 2 K

Cold unlike Lava
Cubs:
Jason Dubois, .111 BA, .222 SLG, 0 BB, 3 K
Corey Patterson, .174 BA, .217 SLG, 1 BB, 6 K
Neifi Perez, .200 BA, .240 SLG, 0 BB, 4 K

Yankees:
Tino Martinez, .125 BA, .222 OBP, .125 SLG, 1 BB, 3 SO (8 ABs)
Gary Sheffield, .211 BA, .348 OBP, .263 SLG, 1 2B, 4 BB, 1 SO
Ruben Sierra, .167 BA, .250 SLG, 1 2B, 0 BB, 5 K
Bernie Williams, .158 BA, .360 OBP, .158 SLG, 0 XBH, 6 BB, 3 K
Tony Womack, .083 BA, .083 OBP, .083 SLG, 0 BB, 1 K (1 for his last 12)

Pitching Matchups:
Friday: Carlos Zambrano vs. Carl Pavano
Zambrano left his last game early after making a funny slide into 2B and injuring his toe. Fortunately for Big Z, he won’t have to run the bases in this game. Hopefully his injury will not aggravate his delivery. After going 4-5 on their 9 game homestand, the Cubs would like to have a good road trip. The Yankees paid big bank for Carl Pavano, but have been disappointed with his results (4.17 ERA) thus far. Apparently the people in the Yankees front office don’t know what a strikeout rate is. Pavano’s career K rate of 5.85 is a lot lower than most pitchers with 3.00 ERAs have. As a Marlin, Pavano got a tremendous lift from playing in a pitcher’s park in front of a great infield defense in a relatively weak division. Now that he’s playing in less of a pitcher’s park in front of a mediocre infield defense in a strong division, some of his weaknesses have been exposed. After a bad outing in Kansas City, Pavano has been solid during his last two starts, allowing 3 earned runs (but 11 hits) in 12 innings pitched.

Notable matchups:
vs. Pavano:
+ Corey Patterson: 8-for-14, 2 2B, 1 3B, .571/.571/.857
+ Jeromy Burnitz: 9-for-27, 2 HR, 2 BB, 6 SO, .333/.419/.556
+ Derrek Lee: 5-for-19, 3 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 8 SO, .263/.300/579 – Michael Barrett: 0-for-7

vs. Zambrano:
Only three players on the Yankees have faced Zambrano more than 4 times:
Tino Martinez: 0-for-13, 2 BB, 3 SO
Tony Womack: 2-for-9, 2 BB, 1 SO
Gary Sheffield: 2-for-6, 3 BB, 0 SO (.556 OBP)

Saturday: Glendon Rusch vs. Chien-Ming Wang
Glendon Rusch finally had an outing in which he struggled the last time out. Despite that, he has been fantastic as a starter for the Cubs this year, tallying a 2.63 ERA in 8 starts. The bad news for the Cubs is that lots of hitters on the Yankees have been very successful against Rusch, and none of the hitters on the Cubs have ever faced Chien-Ming Wang before.

In a season marred with inconsistency from their starters, Wang has been one of the more consistent starters in the Yankees rotation. Wang is a finesse pitcher. He has averaged 3.14 strikeouts per 9 innings and 87 pitches thrown per outing. Like Rusch, he has only made 8 starts so far this year. He has not pitched particularly well in his last 3 outings, allowing 9 earned runs on 18 hits! over his last 15 innings. Wang seems to be a hittable pitcher, as he has a low strikeout rate and has allowed 47 hits in 48 2/3 innings.

Notable matchups:
vs. Rusch:
+ Bernie Williams: 6-for-16, 2 HR, 4 BB, 3 K, 1.289 OPS
+ Alex Rodriguez: 4-for-12, 2 HR, 0 BB, 1 K, 1.250 OPS
+ Gary Sheffield: 4-for-10, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K, 1.155 OPS
+ Derek Jeter: 8-for-22, 2 HR, 1 BB, 4 K, 1.073 OPS
+ Tino Martinez: 13-for-38, 1 HR, 1 BB, 5 K, .875 OPS – Tony Womack: 5-for-22, 2 BB, 5 K, .507 OPS

vs. Wang:
No Cubs have ever faced Wang.

Sunday: Sergio Mitre vs. Mike Mussina
Sergio Mitre is coming off the two best outings in his big league career. In his last two outings combined, he has pitched 16 shutout innings, given up just 7 hits, struck out 9, and has induced a staggering 35 ground ball outs compared to 4 fly ball outs… although he did it at home against two pretty mediocre offenses, the Blue Jays and the Marlins. It will be interesting to see how he performs against a potent offense like the Yankees, in their home ballpark.

Mike Mussina is pitching like Mike Mussina, as usual: about a 6.5 K rate, an ERA below 4, not many walks. That is the way Mussina has pitched for years. Like Mitre, he pitched a complete game shutout his last time out, but his more recent outings have not been so favorable. Before his CG, Mussina allowed 3 earned in 6 innings against the Brewers on June 8, and 6 earned in 6 innings against the Twins the outing before that.

With both pitchers coming off complete game shutouts, and most of the Yankees having never faced Mitre before, this matchup could be a very interesting one.

Notable Matchups:
vs. Mitre
No Yankees have faced Mitre more than 3 times. Tony Womack is 1-for-3 against him, and Gary Sheffield is 1-for-2 against him.

vs. Mussina
+ Jeromy Burnitz, 5-for-13, 2 2B, 2 BB, 5 K 1.236 OPS
+ Derrek Lee, 4-for-5, 1 2B – Todd Walker, 6-for-21 (.286 BA), 1 2B, 2 BB, 6 SO, .681 OPS – Jerry Hairston, 4-for-20, 0 BB, 4 SO, .417 OPS

(All statistics in this article are good through 6/15/05)

As the Cubs struggled through the first two months of the season, bobbing a few games above and below the .500 mark, there was a lot of discussion in the media about whether or not Dusty Baker would return to the Cubs for the 2006 season, presuming the Tribune company might fire him. The fans started to boo Dusty when he would come out of the dugout, and the questions from the media started getting tougher. When the Cubs were at their lowest point a little more than a month ago, they were 5 games under .500 and near the bottom of the NL in runs scored.

However, in spite of all odds, including more injury problems with Kerry Wood and Mark Prior, over the past month, the Cubs have caught fire. The hitting has finally started to come around as players other than Derrek Lee have started to contribute: Aramis Ramirez has turned it on after a slow start, and is now batting .284/.346/.527 with 12 homers. Michael Barrett is making a bid for the All-Star team, leading NL catchers in batting win shares, and hitting .333/.368/.611 in June. And Neifi Perez (.301/.325/.441), no matter how much logic demands that it should happen, will not allow that batting average to drop below .300.

What’s even more unbelievable is that the bullpen is finally taking shape, as Dusty is realizing that his best arms are probably his young guys. Michael Wuertz’s arm might fall off next week from throwing so many breaking balls, but he has been fantastic, with an ERA of 3.34 and a K/9 rate of 9.71. Will Ohman has become the staff’s lefty specialist, with an ERA of 1.93 in 14 innings pitched, and a .550 OPS against left-handed hitters. Even Todd Wellemeyer, who made the team out of spring training but was sent down after a lousy start, has rebounded and now has an ERA of 2.37 in 19 innings.

As the Cubs have gotten better, the boos have died down at Wrigley Field, and talk of Dusty Baker getting fired after the season seems to have all but disappeared. So Dusty has gone from being highly acclaimed by the fans and media to being out of favor with the fans and media to being back in favor with them.

All of this back-and-forth got me wondering: is all of this praise (or criticism) founded or unfounded? Is Dusty Baker really a one of the game’s best managers as most “baseball men” believe, or is he a lousy manager, as many statheads believe? That is the question I set out to answer in this mini-study.

What is a Good Manager?
The first thing we have to ask is, how do we define a good manager, and how do you quantify it? Obviously, this is a very difficult question to answer. Some people believe that a good manager is a guy who can manage a pitching staff and a bullpen well. Some people believe that a good manager is a guy who can relate to the players and get the most out of his players. Some people believe a good manager is a guy who can handle the media. It is impossible to quantify any of these talents, all of which certainly have some value in the big league clubhouse. However, there is one stat which nobody can deny is the most important for any manager: wins. So in this study, I compared a manager’s Pythagorean (Expected) win-loss record compared to his actual win-loss record, the assumption being that a better manager would consistently lead his team to better than expected win-loss records, even if he was managing a lousy team. Obviously, there are some holes to this methodology, in that there are lots of things a manager cannot control that could lead to a better or worse than expected win-loss record. But wins are still the best quantifiable stat to use in evaluating a manager, and over the course of 12 seasons, some of those luck-based things that a manager cannot control probably balance out.

Comparing Other Managers to Dusty Baker
Because this is a Dusty-centric study (i.e., we are comparing how good other managers are compared to him), I wanted to compare him to other managers in the league that are considered some of the elite managers in all of baseball. In order to narrow it down, I required that the managers in the study had managed for at least 10 of the 12 years that Baker had managed (1993-2004), which effectively left only the managers that are widely considered the really good managers in MLB. In the cases of Mike Hargrove and Felipe Alou, I included the 1992 seasons since both of them spent a year not managing in between jobs (2004 and 2002, respectively). This allowed all managers in the study to have 12 years of sample size. In the cases of managers who had been managing for a long time before Baker came into the league (Tony LaRussa and Joe Torre, for example), I included only the years in which Baker had also managed. I did this partially because I wanted to compare Baker to his contemporaries, and partly because I wanted to maintain a consistent era among the managers. Managing the game of baseball in 1979 (the first year Tony LaRussa managed) and throughout the 80’s was different than managing the game of baseball in 1993 (the first year Dusty Baker managed) and throughout the 90’s. Finally, in the cases in which managers were fired or replaced at mid-season, as Joe Torre was in 1995 with St. Louis, I calculated an expected win-loss record based on the number of runs the team scored and allowed under the manager (I got this information from retrosheet).

With those criteria in mind, here are the men widely considered the best managers in baseball during the Dusty Baker era (1993 – present) and how they performed compared to their expected records:

At first glance, this list seems to confirm what many have believed all along: Joe Torre and Bobby Cox are excellent managers. On the other hand, some might say, “It’s easy to overachieve when you have a steady stream of great players like Torre and Cox have both had over the course of the last 12 years.” That’s probably true. But look at Felipe Alou. He has the lowest winning percentage of any manager on this list (can you believe he posted a higher than .500 career winning percentage after 10 years in Montreal?!?), and he is the third most successful in terms of his teams overachieving. If Felipe Alou had been managing a consistently good team for 10 years instead of the Expos, we might be talking about him in the same light as Torre and Cox.

Tony LaRussa, probably the biggest surprise on this list, is an interesting case. He has spent the last 12 years of his career with 3 lousy A’s teams followed by 9 years with Cardinals teams that have varied from mediocre to at worst (73-89 in 1997) to the best team in baseball (105-57 last year). LaRussa has one of the best reputations in baseball. He is widely considered very smart when it comes to in-game strategy, and he is almost certainly headed to the hall of fame as a manager. However, the Expected Win-Loss records of Tony LaRussa’s teams were 986-891, while the Expected Win-Loss records of Felipe Alou’s teams were 863-867. Felipe Alou has clearly done a better job managing his teams than LaRussa has, considering the level of talent they both had to manage. You could even make the argument that Alou has been better than Torre or Cox, as over the course of 12 years his teams have allowed more runs than they have scored (obviously not the case for Torre or Cox), yet his teams have a winning record. That is truly remarkable.

When you consider that on average, Joe Torre and Bobby Cox, two men who will someday go into the hall of fame as managers, only manage their team to overachieve by 2-4 games on average each year, Baker’s average of his teams overachieving by 1.08 games per season looks pretty good. Still, he is right smack dab in the middle of the pack, and he is nowhere near the best when you consider the difference between the best score on this list and the worst score. Like most managers on this list (other than Bobby Cox) Baker’s teams have varied from lousy (68-94 in 1996) to great (103-59 in 1993). So the conclusion we can draw from this part of the study is that Dusty Baker probably isn’t as bad of a manager as many think he is, but he probably isn’t as good of a manager as many think he is.

But average overachievement does not tell the whole story. As we all know, averages can be heavily skewed by outliers, especially when there are only 12 data points to choose from. There is a relatively large drop-off in between the overachieving managers on this list and the underachievers – Lou Piniella and Tony LaRussa. Are the underachieving managers victims of huge negative outliers from lousy teams in Tampa Bay and Oakland, respectively, or are they consistent underperformers? In Part II of this study, I will examine each manager’s consistency – how often do his teams over/underachieve, and by how much?

I’ve never been much of a fan of Jurassic Carl Everett, but his comments in the upcoming issue of Maxim are just plain ignorant. One of these days, there will be a gay baseball player (hopefully a star) who shows everyone that a homosexual can be a great player.

Everett is just being ignorant. “Two women can’t produce a baby, two men can’t produce a baby, so it’s not how it’s supposed to be, ” well, what about those who are infertile? By that line of logic, an infertile couple are “wrong.”

His general ignorance is shown pretty well. “Gays being gay is wrong.” Look at that syntax. Is it OK for heterosexuals to be gay, or is it just gays being gay that is the problem? I don’t understand.

What an idiot.

A few notes about the site, some sports and other general stuff:

• I actually got to watch/listen to a Sox game over the weekend. On my drive home from work Friday and Saturday evenings, I was able to get a clear signal in my car from ESPN 1000. Friday, I heard the second, third and fourth innings of the Sox game via Farmer and Rooney. It was incredible. Listening to the Nationals’ and Orioles’ broadcasts, it’s easy to get lulled into accepting awful broadcasters with no chemistry. Not so with the Sox’ broadcasters. In the second inning, when Garland singled home a run, I was struck by how lucky the Sox have been this year. When your American League pitcher singles home a run, you must have a giant horeshoe up your collective patoot.
Anyway, when Garland hit the mound to pitch the next inning, Rooney started calling him “Slugger.” It was wonderful, as he kept at it for an inning and a half, while Farmer mocked Rooney for it. It was classic.
• I also was able to check out Saturday’s game on WGN after getting home from work. Ken Harrelson and Darrin Jackson are an absolute train wreck. You’d think those two would’ve improved in the years they’ve been together, but their broadcasts have more uncomfortable pauses than a Gnome radio show. They’re behind the game, misidentify players and still mispronounce names of their own guys (It’s OO-REE-BAY, not YOO-REE-BAY, you idiots). What a mess.

• If you have a chance, check out Four-Letter Network’s Manager Ranker. I don’t know if they’ll actually put out the results, but when I was ranking the managers, I found myself stuck after ranking the top three and the bottom three. Basically, after putting Bobby Cox, Jack McKeon and Mike Sciscioa in the top three and Lou Pinella, Phil Garner and Buddy Bell in the bottom, I had nowhere to go. I threw Dusty somewhere in the twenties and Ozzie around, like 10 or so, but otherwise, I have no idea where anyone stands. I guess Joe Torre’ll probably win on reputation, but, let’s be honest, a chimp in pinstripes could’ve managed the ‘98 Yankees to a title. Big whoop.

• Dave Cameron at the U.S.S. Mariner has assembled his ‘franchise team,’ as defined as such:

If I was starting a franchise tomorrow and given first pick of each player at a given position, this is how it would go.I’ve slotted players into roles that I feel their talent level matches, so no Josh Beckett as my fifth starter type picks.

It’s a pretty interesting read, but the most interesting part is this:
Number Two Starter: Mark Buehrle – Most underrated pitcher in the game.

Not sure if I agree, but he is a fine no. 2 starter.
What’s more interesting, from a Chicago perspective, is that Dave picked Buehrle over Kerry Wood and Roy Halladay (as his no. 1 guy) over Mark Prior (not sure where he puts Zambrano, but, whatever). I understand it in that Prior and Wood have both had injury problems (however freak Prior’s have been), but Zambrano has been a wonderful pitcher and is very young. I understand not including Dontrelle Willis; he’s shown not to be a consistant pitcher yet. Zambrano has been an excellent pitcher since day one.
Of course, Dave Cameron isn’t the pre-eminent authority on baseball in the nation, but I do respect his work a great deal.

• Did anyone catch Steve Stone’s comment in the Daily Herald last week? I didn’t, as I don’t read the Herald, but he was quoted in BP.com’s Week in Quotes this week. I suggest you read all the quotes, but this one is particularly good:

“Have the opposing team’s ace get the flu every series.”—Stone, on how the Cubs can continue to play well

• As for the site, both Taft and I have been especially busy these last few weeks, but we’ll get cracking on more updates as soon as our responsibilities calm down a bit. We’ll have a post on All-Star voting coming up soon, as well as a draft recap.