Snobs vs. Slobs

Thanks to our friends at the Four-Letter Network, I was able to watch/listen to my beloved Sox again yesterday. On the television side, they had Jon Sciambi, Steve Stone and… Jeff Brantley (more on him in a bit)? You have one of the best play-by-play guys in the game (Sciambi), a very well-respected color guy and then Gomer Pyle, basically. Brantley is an idiot.

On the radio side, ESPNradio had the imcomparable Dan Schulman and Dave “Soup” Campbell. I happen to think they are the best baseball team on national media. Soup always has something intriguing to say and Schulman keeps things going better than nearly anyone.

A good example is when Joel Peralta came in yesterday, they mentioned that Peralta used to be a position player. Instead of going for the easy “hey, let’s get some current guys who started as a position player,” they mentioned some hall-of-famers and old-timers that had started as one or the other. For example, I didn’t know Stan Musial was a pitcher before he hurt his arm and became an outfielder. Similarly, I didn’t know Dave Steib was an infielder before he took up pitching. That’s pretty interesting.

Nevertheless, they played a game yesterday, and the Sox won it in exciting fashion. They scored two runs in the top of the ninth in a little ball style offense—much to my chagrin, trust me—off superreliever Scot Shields. So, let’s get to the notes on the game:
—When Frank Thomas was replaced in the seventh by Timo Perez, the speculation by Soup and Schulman was that Ozzie was just trying to put Hurt in his place. The Quote Machine has been pretty thinly veiled in his disdain for Hurt, constantly showing Frank up since he got injured. In fact, two days before Hurt came back, the Ozzeroo has this to say:

“I’m not promising Frank he is going to be an everyday player every day. We need other people to play also.’‘

With that said, it turns out Thomas, indeed, has a hip problem. While I’m not Will Carroll, I would suspect this hip problem has something to do with him compensating for a still sore ankle. It doesn’t seem like the injury is major, so maybe Ozzie’s decision is made for him. Play Hurt sparingly until he can go everyday and then let him loose.
—Frank’s return was pretty typical for a post-2000 Frank Thomas. Instead of the slugging/walking maniac he used to be, Hurt is now a guy who can take a walk for you and maybe hit 25 HR. That certainly has a place on this team (the “taking a walk” part is pretty foreign to anyone wearing silver and black), but it’s not the HOFer that he used to be. Anyway, he looked pretty good, from what I saw, drawing a walk, scoring a run, going 0-2 and not striking out (which is key, by the way). In his walk PA, he looked like the Frank of old, hitting a foul ball about 410, and looking at two pitches that were, maybe, three inches off the plate. I’m not sure plate discipline like that can be taught (man, I wish it could).
—I predicted them to finish first in the AL West, but the Angels looked pretty mediocre yesterday. A team that walks less than the Chicago White Sox of the South Side (sounds pretty ridiculous, doesn’t it?), the Angels only walked once off starter Mark Buehrle. Now, Buehrle is usually around the strike zone, but, going into the ninth, Marky Mark had only thrown 91 pitches. The Angels swung at a lot of first pitches.
—Speaking of his pitch count, yesterday was an excercise in when a manager maybe shouldn’t necessarily pay attention to those things. Buehrle had given up base hits in the seventh and eighth and it seemed as though the Angels had a pretty good read on him. After all, he’d given u 7 hits in seven innings. However, because of his low pitch count, the Ozzeroo left him in to start the ninth. He gave up two hits and the Angels scored the tying and leading runs after Damaso Marte stunk up the joint.
—This was Jeff Brantley’s time to go beserk. With Dustin Hermanson warming up, as I mentioned, Ozzie let Buehrle go out and start the ninth. This made Brantley unhappy (lest we forget, he was a mediocre closer for the Phillies, Cardinals, Reds and Giants), but he kept pretty calm. When Buehrle gave up the second hit, he seethed, relatively quietly. When Marte walked in the go ahead-run, Brantley went insane. “Buehrle shouldn’ve never come out for the ninth!” “We shouldn’t even be talking about this game being tied.” “He had Hermanson in the pen, why not use him?” The anger powered his voice. “This is just bad managing, Ozzie still has a lot to learn.” “I understood letting him start the inning, but once he lets up a hit, take him out. You have a closer for a reason.” I’m not quoting verbatim on all of those quotes, just most of them. What was scary was that no one interrupted him while he went on his rampage. Stone said nothing (probably for fear that the ex-closer would tear the ex-starter’s head off), Sciambi said nothing. It was bizarre. I’d never heard an analyst so angry.
—With Jermaine Dye crushing Washburn, Jurassic Carl had the day off, which is probably a good idea for a while. For all his talents, Everett is a little old, and Dye has heating up recently. He’s slugged .560 for May, which is considerably better than the .313 he slugged in April. Crazy Carl has slugged under .300 for May.
—More with the Angels tonight. The Sox have Freddy Garcia against John John Lackey of Los Angeles/Anaheim/California/whatever. Unfortunately, tonight’s game is a night game. Garcia’s ERA is more than two runs worse (4.55 v. 2.31) in night games than during day games. A weird stat, but telling.

I am, by no means, a medhed. I’m not particularly in tune with sports injuries. But, as an avid reader of Will Carroll, I know that keeping your guys healthy is one of the most important things an organization can do.

Nothing can beat having a strong team, as is demonstrated by Will’s pick of the Devils Rays’ staff as 2004 Medical Staff of the Year. The Rays have demonstratedthathaving a weak, healthy team will still get you a big ball of nothing.

But, instead of luck, health is something good organizations work well into their strategy to win. Great teams can survive a few key injuries with depth. And lucky (and by lucky, I mean uninjured) teams can get by simply staying off the training table.

Let’s take my favorite team and contrast two bizarre and totally different years:

The 2004 White Sox lost their two best hitters last year within weeks of each other whil still in the race. The team was out of the race by September, by way of having a mediocre pitching staff and an above-average offense. In my opinion, the Sox likely would have challenged for the division title, had Ordonez and Thomas been around to make a good offense a great one.

The 2005 White Sox were reconfigured to be a “small-ball” team, trading slugger Carlos Lee and letting Magglio Ordonez walk. The pitching staff was upgraded with the addition of Orlando Hernandez. The team has got off to the best start in baseball, thanks to a—at the time of this writing—MLB-leading pitching staff (aided by the best defense in the majors) and an average offense. The team has been pretty lucky (three games better than its Pythag record), but, really, the Sox owe their early season success to health. Only one player has gone on the DL so far (El Duque), and he will come off this weekend.

The Sox are doing well this year largely because all key cogs (other than Frank Thomas) have been healthy. While the team is missing an important offense player, the organization can replace him (while I don’t agree with it) they find fit. So far, the team has not suffered. But, if Mark Buerhle, Freddy Garcia, Dustin Hermanson and Aaron Rowand all had to miss significant time, the team would be in dire straits.

That, essentially, is what the Cubs are going through. While the Nationals lead the leage in DL’d players (with 10), the Cubs have been hurt most by injuries. Two of the team’s best pitchers have missed a lot of time and the third has tennis elbow from too much Internet (hey, maybe he’s reading our site). The team’s closer has been in and out, and the team’s second-best offensive weapon went down in a heap after tearing the groin muscle off bone. After coming back from the DL, Mark Prior is now out with a broken elbow after getting hit by a line drive.

There’s no doubt the Cubs have been extraordinarily unlucky this year, but there were also some key decisions that were made, hurting the team. The front office:
a. Counted on Kerry Wood to be healthy. He has missed 8 or more starts four of his six years, including losing all of ‘99 to Tommy John surgery. He is currentlyon the DL with shoulder problems.
b. Counted on Nomar Garciaparra to help lead the offense. Nomar has missed 19 or more games in five of his nine full seasons, including one in which he only played 21 games. He is out for the year with the aforementioned groin problem.
c. Counted on a mediocre bullpen. I’m not as familiar with the bullpen, so I’ll leave that analysis to Taft.

Mark Prior’s injuries have been fluky, to say the least, but he’s still not the guy to count on to lead your staff. Luckily, the Cubs have some depth in the pitching staff, but not nearly enough. Counting on the Meat Tray and Ryan Dempster to pitching you into the postseason is a little far-fetched.

But, the offensive side of things is more problematic. Derrek Lee has hit like a man possessed, but counting on him, Nomar and Aramis Ramirez to lead the team with six other scrubs is foolish. Nomar, as we have seen, gets hurt. Even when he’s healthy, he is not Cal Ripken, so having a decent backup would probably be wise. The Cubs had the Hitless Wonder.

The Sox would have the same problems, but the Sox, not to brag, have done a very good job keeping their pitchers healthy. Since the Sirotka/Parque/Baldwin staff of 2001, the Sox have not had a major pitching injury to anyone not named David Wells. The Sox pitchers work on pitch counts of 120 and younger pitchers are kept on a shorter leash (McCarthy, for example). Whether this is luck, management or health, we’ll never know.

I’m not saying the Cubs, with some depth, could’ve overcome the injuries they’ve endured. But, I think, expecting all those key players to be healthy was a foolish idea and something that wasn’t going to happen. Just like the Sox expecting, this year, El Duque to make 35 starts. Every team has healthy issues, it’s a matter of whom an overcome them and whether they’re minor injuries or not.

In keeping with my stated goal of having a nickname for every player on both Chicago teams, Snobs vs. Slobs presents a new feature: Nickname me. Every so often, we’ll present a player with suggestions for his nickname, for which we’ll address him in future posts. The nickname will also be added to our nicknames page.

So, if you’d like, head over to our new nickname poll.

Let the voting begin!

The motto for the 2005 Chicago Cubs should be “another day, another run.” The Cubs once again struggled to score runs against the Colorado Rockies, who have the second-worst pitching staff in the National League (259 runs allowed, second only to the Reds, 262). The only reason they did manage to get more than one run today is because Brian Fuentes threw a wild pitch in the 9th inning with Jerry Hairston on third.

In my last notes entry I talked about the Cubs’ de-emphasis of on-base percentage and how it will leave them struggling for runs all season long. But the Cubs don’t just have a problem with OBP, they have a major problem with swinging at pitches early in the count, and clearly have a problem with swinging at pitches they cannot handle. There are many positive aspects to having a team that takes a lot of pitches, but the most obvious one to me is this: if you take a lot of pitches, you will wear out the opposing pitcher. If the opposing pitcher is worn out, he is more likely to throw a mistake pitch. Furthermore, the more pitches you make the opposing pitcher throw, the more likely you are to see a relief pitcher early in a game. Generally speaking, most teams reserve their best relief pitchers until the end of the game, leaving the weaker relievers to come in during the middle innings.

Like the patience/power concept, this is another common sense strategy that the Cubs organization does not seem to grasp. In last night’s game, Brandon Backe, a pitcher who has averaged about 6 1/3 innings and 94.7 pitches per outing this season, needed only 81 pitches to get through 7 innings. In today’s game, Jason Jennings, a pitcher who has averaged less than 6 innings per outing, needed only 87 pitches to get through 7 innings.

But the Hack Attack hasn’t occurred over the course of just those two games.

Unsurprisingly, the Cubs are last in Major League Baseball in Pitches per Plate Appearance. This is not an isolated incident of the Cubs struggling in this department. In 2004, the Cubs were 29th in baseball in that department. In 2003, the year the Cubs won the division, they were 20th.

I’m not saying that there is a direct correlation between the Cubs taking pitches and them going to the playoffs; indeed, there are a lot of good teams near the top of the P/PA list that are lousy offenses (Oakland, for example), and in 2002, the Anaheim Angels were dead last in this category, but they went on to win the World Series. But the Angels were also 6th in OPS in baseball that year, and 9th in walk-to-strikeout ratio, which tells us that although they were swinging early in the count, they weren’t swinging at many bad pitches, and they were generally swinging at pitches they could hit hard. This year, the Cubs are 16th in OPS and 24th walk-to-strikeout ratio, which means they are swinging at everything – good pitches, bad pitches, pitches they can handle, pitches that they can’t handle.

When the Cubs were having similar struggles last year, I heard Dusty Baker say that the hitting coaches encourage the Cubs’ hitters to be “aggressive within the strike zone.” That’s bad advice. You don’t want to be aggressive within the strike zone unless there are two strikes. You want to be aggressive in certain parts of the strike zone – the parts of the strike zone that are your “hot zones” – the parts of the strike zone where you know you can handle a pitch, and hit the tar out of the ball. Each hitter has them, even the worst hitters around, like me. My teammates on my slow-pitch softball team will tell you that my hitting skills leave something to be desired. Yet, even I know that I can handle a pitch at my knees much better than I can handle a pitch at my shoulders. So I tend to take high pitches and try to swing at low pitches, because I know that I’m much more likely to hit the low pitch for a line drive, and much more likely to pop up on the high pitch.

Major League Baseball players know their hot and cold zones, too. It is a matter of controlling yourself to not swing at pitches you know you can’t handle. Like drawing walks or hitting home runs, it is a skill that some players have and some don’t. Unfortunately, the Cubs have a whole bunch of players who don’t, and they don’t look like they are going to stop hacking any time soon.

If you haven’t heard already, it appears the world baseball championships will probably happen next March. In Jayson Stark’s story, Pirates GM gives the problem with the U.S. team: “Who plays?”

Good question.

A lot of people will likely tout the big U.S. stars for the roster, but a lot of those stars won’t play because of travel, age or many other reasons. With that said, I give you the Snobs vs. Slobs official United States team with an explanation of each pick. Some will be a little silly and some will have reasons other than VORP (the main stat I’ll use). So, today comes the pitching staff and tomorrow will bring the lineup and bench.

Starting rotation:

1. Ben Sheets 26

Obviously, a controversial no. 1 starter. But, before anyone goes crazy, the numbers don’t lie. Sheets was third among American pitchers in VORP in 2004, only after two of oldies competing for the 2 & 3 spots on the USA team. PLus, he’s only 26. While Schilling and Johnson both could fall off tomorrow (that’s what happens sometimes when you’re 35+), Sheets is just entering his prime. More importantly, Sheets was the winning pitcher on the mound the last time the U.S. won Olympic gold in 2000. So, experience is important here.

2&3 (Pick two) Curt Schilling 39/Randy Johnson 43/Roger Clemens 43

I think one of the three of these guys is likely to be injured, crotechty (and not wanting to actually show up) or unable to play for one reason or another. I’m very much anti-Curt Schilling, but he’d enjoy this type of crap with his USA-rah-rah attitude. One of the complaints about the U.S. is that they may be complacent. Schilling would not be complacent. Schilling and Johnson were ranked 2 & 3, respectively, in pitchers’ VORP last year, and Roger Clemens currently sports a 0.00 road ERA in 26 road innings this year. So, yeah, they’re good.

4. Mark Prior 25

Obviously, Mark Prior is a house. The only question would be keeping him healthy. He was not particularly good last year (24 VORP, as compared to Sheets’ 66.8), but he’s got electric stuff. Also, since about 95% of our readership is made up of Cub fans, I don’t want to piss you snobs off.

5. Jason Schmidt 32

Schmidt has not won a Cy Young, but has been among the league leaders in VORP every year. Injuries could limit him to a smaller role, but you never know. He should’ve won the Cy Young the year Gagne won it (2003).

Bullpen

1. Jake Peavy 24

2. Brad Lidge 29

3. Joe Nathan 31

4. Keith Foulke 33

5. Billy Wagner 34

6. Trevor Hoffman 38

Peavy is a good pick for long relief/spot starts/etc. as he’s an excellent starter that would be forced into a relief role (in fact, I’d be quick to simply add six more starters to even out the staff, but egos would surely get in the way). Peavy would’ve won the ERA title last year if he hadn’t gotten hurt and he was still 11th in Pitchers’ VORP. So, yeah, he doesn’t suck.

The rest of the pen is pretty standard. I think assembling this pen is largely dependant on trying to get guys with small egos who’re willing to take a back seat to whomever the chosen closer is (my choice would be Hoffman, as I love the “Hells Bells” thing), the best reliever of the bunch. This is why I don’t have John Smoltz on this team. For one, his elbow is held together by duct tape and chewing gum. Also, he’s got an ego that can’t be quenched unless he’s pitching 162 games a year. No thanks, we don’t want troublemakers on this team.

Hitters tomorrow.

Why this week is important for the Cubs

This week the Cubs face the two teams with the worst road records in all of baseball. The Astros (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday) are just 2-19 on the road. The Rockies (Thursday through Sunday) are 3-17. If the Cubs can win 5 out of 7, they will be at .500 to finish out May. It’s not great, but at this point in the season, with the injuries the Cubs have sustained, ending May at .500 would be pretty big for the Cubs. It wouldn’t mean that they are contenders (indeed, they’re not); but it wouldn’t make playoff contention out of the question, either. If the Cubs keep playing like they have been and drop 4 or 5 to the Astros and Rockies, there’s really no reason to believe.

The Pat and Ron Show and OBP
I have been listening to a lot of games on WGN radio recently. One thing Pat and Ron keep talking about is how befuddled they are that the Cubs can’t score any runs. Whenever I hear this, I want to send Pat and Ron a list of on-base percentages for current regular starters on the team along with a letter explaining why getting on base is the most important offensive statistic. Unfortunately, I don’t think that would pass the Andy Masur/Tribune Co. screening process of getting read on the air by Pat and Ron. So I’ll list the OBPs of the current Cubs lineup going into tonight’s game:
1. Hairston (.365)
2. Perez (.317)
3. Lee (.444)
4. Burnitz (.339)
5. Ramirez (.319)
6. Dubois (.299)
7. Patterson (.297)
8. Barrett (.300)

If you assume that a league average on-base percentage is about .330, The Cubs only have 3 members of the lineup that have above-average on-base percentages. Every other player is below average, and Dubois, Patterson and Barrett are all getting on base about 30 percent of the time, which is nothing short of horrible.

The Cubs are 22nd in baseball in on-base percentage. Unsurprisingly, they are close to that rank in runs scored – 26th. The team with the best OBP is the Boston Red Sox, at an amazing .363. Also unsurprisingly, the Red Sox are second in baseball in runs scored. The team with the second best OBP, the Yankees, is first in runs scored. In the National League, the teams that have scored the most runs, the Cardinals (228) and the Dodgers (214) rank fifth and first in in the league in OBP, respectively. Clearly, there is a correlation between scoring runs and having men on base; teams that have men on base tend to score more runs.

Danny Graves
Danny Graves was released by the Reds today. Already the rumors are swirling in Chicago that the Cubs might try to acquire Graves off the waiver wire to help their troubled ‘pen. Of course, there are reasons why Graves got dumped. This article suggests that Graves got released because he made an obscene gesture at a fan who was taunting him. That probably did play a factor into his release, but a bigger factor was probably his 7.36 ERA, and the fact that he had given up 9 runs in his last 3 appearances.

I can’t imagine that picking up Graves would be a good move for the Cubs. First and foremost, if Graves reacted that poorly to one fan heckling him, how is he going to react when 40,000 Cubs fans are booing him for giving up a game-tying home run?

Second, Danny Graves isn’t the pitcher lots of people think he is. He’s got a career 3.98 ERA - not bad, but not great. What’s more concerning is his K/9 rate. Graves had a K/9 rate of 3.93 this year, which is really low for a closer. Over the last two years, his OPS allowed are .869 and .801 – very high. There’s really no reason to believe that Danny Graves will be a valuable addition to the Cubs bullpen. His best years came when he was 24-26 years old, in 1998-2000, when lower ERAs resulted from a better strikeout rate (ranging from 4.87 to 5.60) and likely, just better raw stuff, as his OPS against were very good, all below .700. There’s no reason to believe that Graves, at the age of 31, could repeat those types of numbers.

All that said, I’d be surprised if the Cubs didn’t make a run at Graves. Despite his mediocre track record, he is considered a “proven” closer – he has 182 career saves and 40 blown saves (90.1%). I have a feeling that save success percentage is probably something the Cubs will look at more than actual statistics, considering the trouble they have had nailing down saves.

The Future was ready, the present wasn’t.

Despite Paul Konerko’s sentiments, Ozzie Guillen didn’t treat yesterday’s game with the importance of a playoff game. Instead of bringing in Neal Cotts or another effective reliever, The Ozzeroo brought in Luis Vizcaino, he of a 6+ ERA coming into the game. I’m not going to second-guess taking out The Future—I don’t expect a complete game in anyone’s first Major-League start—I just think Ozzie had better options in the bullpen. Whatever, it’s one game.
—It was the only of the three Cubs/Sox games I got to watch in entirety, which was pretty cool. It’s been hard for me to get a good read on the Sox’ patience (or lack thereof) because the only games I’ve seen them play were against the Brad Radke, Johan Santana and Mark Prior (all guys who walk nearly no one). At least from yesterday, it seems the Sox were totally overmatched for most of the game. Watching Aaron Rowand and Joe Crede wave at some of those pitches was just ugly.—As is the custom for each team, all the runs were scored on home runs, yet it was still a relatively low-scoring affair. Neither team can seem to get anyone on base.—Being the first time I’ve heard Len Kasper and Bob Brenly, I happen to like them a great deal. While Brenly has gotten a lot better since his “Adios, Señor Pelota” days, Kasper really seems to be interested in more advanced baseball. Instead of the usual Ken Harrelson (the only thing that matters is a win), Kasper went on a two-inning speech-thing about the importance of the Quality Start. In it, he mocked the “only thing that matters is a win” mentality, and really talked up the importance of the QS. Even Brenly got in on it at the end, saying “The numbers don’t lie. If you put up a Quality Start, you’ve kept your team in the game and you’ve got a good chance to win.”—Apparently, in the post-game presser, the Quote Machine lived up to his name:

‘’Why was I [ticked]?’’ Guillen said of the line of questioning. “Because it’s easy when you come in here and the first question is second-guessing my [butt]. I took him out because I’m the [expletive] manager; that’s it. If you want me to explain it to you, I will explain it to you, but the reason I took him out was because I am the [expletive] manager.’‘

I’d like to see Dusty say something like that in a presser.—In one of the stranger things I’ve heard, Brenly and Kasper mentioned that Carlos Zambrano’s forearm/tennis elbow injury may have something to do with carpal tunnel and his us of his laptop. Apparently, he communicates with his family nearly nightly via AIM and e-mail and surfs the Internet a lot (I’m guessing porn, but that’s only because he’s a young man on the road a lot). It’s gotten to the point that the trianing staff, I guess, had to force him to use those ergonomic mouse pad things. Very strange. I sit at a computer all day and I do a lot of typing, clicking and dragging and my arms seem to be OK. Weird.—Like nearly everyone not from Charlotte, this was the first time I got a glimpse at The Future. My first impression was that he’s wicked skinny. At 6’7”, 190, he looks like he could use a sandwich or 50. This was especially evident when compared to Prior, who’s built like a tank. Calfzilla really lived up to his name as well.—One of the things I was especially impressed with was McCarthy’s curveball. Instead of a looping thing like El Duque’s, it was more Prior-ish with a tight spinning motion. He really seemed to set it up well with a good fastball, as well. I’m no scout, but I really like his stuff. Let be honest, six strikeouts and one walk in 5.3 innings don’t lie. That’s a nice line.—But, he’s still very young. At 190, he clearly needs to fill out a little. Also, looking at his headshot on the pregame show, he looks young. I told Taft I thought he looks like a kid wearing his dad’s tux to prom. I wouldn’t be suprised to see him in an Oxy commercial.—Apparently, him and Prior are e-mail buddies and pretty good friends. That’s a little weird, but pretty cool. Maybe they can show Zambrano how to use a computer in moderation and keepy your wrists healthy.—Of course, being that he’s a rookie, it’s time for the baseball ritual of cross-dressing for the road trip. I don’t know how many other teams do it (I doubt the Yankees do), but the Sox make their rookies dress like a damned fool after the game

McCarthy was forced to follow a baseball hazing tradition by having to wear long navy blue silk shorts that resembled a woman’s skirt with a salmon-colored top that had flowers on the pockets…

I know the Indians do that, but do a lot of other teams? The Sox also have the beer shower after a rookie’s first win, but we’ll just have to wait for that in McCarthy’s case.—All in all, a good series. I think it would’ve been silly to predict a sweep at their place, but that last game was certainly winnable. As an ex-Chicagoan, it’s good to see the city get hyped over three good baseball games. As a Sox fan, it’s good to see the Sox play well over the weekend against a decent team in the Cubs (certainly against three good pitchers). Now, it’s time for the Vlad-less Angels on a West Coast trip for the Sox and the Cubs to face a crap Houston team at the Friendly Confines.

While I’m not going to gloat, man, that Cub bullpen stinks. The second Zambrano leaves, Wuertz gives up a bunch of runs. TippyPitch was pretty good himself but Zambrano was dealing.

Anyway, every win is one more step towards Taft wearing my computer-writing Sox jersey. I’m pretty excited about that, although, I doubt it’ll look as good as Parker at Wrigley in full Sox regalia.

Speaking of Zambrano, last night, on Baseball Tonight, Jeff Brantley and Larry Bowa declared Carlos Zambrano as the guy who should be the Cub closer. Largely because he’s “emotional” and has the “makeup” of a closer.

Brantley: The Cubs have a lot of guys who can start.
Bowa: When you lose a game like that, it demoralizes the whole team.

This is up there with John Kruk’s Juan Pierre remark. I sat with mouth agape as Brantley and Bowa kept being dumb.

I guess I shouldn’t be suprised with the lack of quality on the four-letter network, considering the overwhelming crap on its radio network. SportsCenter is OK, but the parade of ‘experts’ they trot out there for their baseball coverage is just a joke.

Clearly, my prediction of the Sox winning 5 of 6 looks pretty good with the Sox beating the Cubs 5-1 yesterday.

More importantly, with El Duque nursing a shoulder injury, The Future is now. Sort of.

The Sun-Times story doesn’t quote any Sox sources, but says “It’s likely McCarthy will return to Charlotte after a start or two.”

I worry about his chances against the Cubs, though. The Future has given up nine home runs in 47 innings at Charlotte, which plays right into the Cubs’s strengths. A staff that’s around the plate could get killed by the Cubs’ aggressiveness; especially with Derrek Lee hitting all strikes into the seats.

With luck, maybe there’ll be a run on no. 15 Sox jerseys on Monday. I sure hope so.

While Interleague Play has lost its sheen in a lot of cities (I doubt a lot of Arizona fans are hyped about the riveting Tigers/Diamonbacks tilt today), it still remains important to Chicago fans. Sox fans, in particular, take great pride in beating the Cubs in the two series the teams play. Because our site is devoted to these teams, and the differences the teams possess, Taft and I talked about the game last night . The conversation follows:

Ross Gianfortune: We should wager something.
Alex Taft: True. Perhaps we’ll come up with it as we’re typing this thing out. Because there is a distinct possibility that each team will win two out of three in each series.
AT: I’m trying to find a historical record of the matchup – that’d be a good place to start
RG: Yeah, surprisingly, neither the Trib nor the Times has run one [Thursday]. Maybe they’re waiting until [Friday].
AT: Well, the historical record isn’t all that important anyway because it’s not like there have been the same players on both teams since Interleague play started in 1997.
AT: The important thing is that the Cubs and White Sox always seem to play close, exciting games in a playoff-like atmosphere
RG: Right.
RG: Aaron Rowand is a Bears fan and the Bleacher Bums think he’s OK because of it.
AT: Leave it to the bears to bring peace between the warring sides of the city
AT: Well, last year, the Cubs won 4 out of 6. The Sox won 2 out of 3 in the first series at The Cell, and then the Cubs swept the series at Wrigley.
AT: Somehow I don’t think that’s going to happen this year.
RG: The Sox have a 22-20 record against the Cubs since Interleague began.
RG: So, yes, it’s an evenly matched series.
AT: Very.
RG: The question isn’t whether it’s historically evenly-matched, but which team has the edge this year.
AT: Right. Well, despite the Sox’ superior record (this season and in the series overall), I’m inclined to predict a split, each team taking two out of three at home. But perhaps that’s just wishful thinking – the Cubs haven’t been playing particularly well as of late, and the only reason they have won two games in a row is due to Jose Mesa realizing that he’s really not the greatest closer on planet earth.
RG: Your idea that the Cubs are going to split is wishful thinking. The Cubs, for all your hope, are 13th in the NL in runs scored. The Sox are sixth in the AL in runs scored. On the other end of the ledger, the Cubs are eighth in the league in ERA.
RG: The Sox are first in the AL in that department.
RG: So, relative to their respective leagues, the Sox are considerably better.
RG: The Sox have scored about twenty more runs than the Cubs and given up about twenty less. I feel pretty good about the Sox in this series.
AT: Woof! 13th – I hadn’t realized the Cubs had dropped that far. It’s a testament to what a lousy month they’ve had. They were in the top 5 in runs scored at the end of April.
RG: And, while the Sox’ actual record is three wins better than their pythagorean record, they’d still have the second-best record in the majors (after Atlanta).
AT: But their pitching isn’t going to hold up. It can’t. Los Cubanos Ancianos are pitching way over their heads. That’s got to stop at some point. Now, it might not be this weekend, as the Cubs might not be a good enough team to really put the screws to the Sox pitching staff, but it will happen eventually.
RG: Still.
AT: All that said, I feel pretty decent about the Cubs’ chances this weekend, mostly because they don’t have to face either of the best pitchers on the White Sox, Jon Garland and Mark Buehrle.
RG: Yes, but according to the Trib, Marky-Mark and Garland both suck against the Cubs (5.29 and 6.31, respectively).
AT: Well, Garland sucked against everybody until this year. I don’t know what to say about Buehrle other than I guess anybody can struggle against a certain team. Still, they are both the best pitchers on the Sox this year, and the Cubs don’t have to face them at home.
RG: Well, yes and no. All five Sox starters have been above average. Garcia’s 4.02 ERA is nothing to write home about, but it’s better than all Cub starters not named Mark William Prior.
RG: Even your boy, Big Z, has a 4.05 ERA.
AT: Those ERAs don’t tell the whole story, though. Let’s examine the weekend’s pitching matchups, shall we?
AT: Friday’s matchup is Garcia (4.02 ERA, 5.87 K/9) vs. Maddux (4.15 ERA, 6.23 K/9). Saturday is Zambrano (4.09 ERA, 8.17 K/9) against TippyPitch McGhee (3.52, 6.65 K/9), and Sunday is Calfzilla (2.93 ERA, 10.17 K/9) against El Duque (3.97 ERA, 5.87 K/9)
RG: OK, I feel OK about that.
RG: TippyPitch and Garcia’s ERAs are close to the Cubs’ starters (within a half-run or so).
RG: Sure, El Duque stinks, but what do you expect from someone who had Jesus as a camp counselor?
AT: Anyway, before we examine the pitching matchups, let me just make my point: there’s no way that all 87 years of Contreras and El Duque are going to keep pitching with sub-4 ERAs with K rates under 6 in US Cellular Field. And there’s no reason to believe that Contreras’ is going to remain on the plus side of 6, considering he’s 33 (HA!) and his career K rate is 5.68.
RG: I’m not arguing that.
RG: But, the Sox happen to have Brandon McCarthy, he of a 61/15 K/BB ratio down in Charlotte.
AT: Good for them. I would be shocked if Ozzie moved a struggling Contreras or Duque to the bullpen in favor of McCarthy, though… just doesn’t seem like something he would do.
RG: Why not?
AT: I don’t know. He’s bonkers. He’s saying he might not play Frank Thomas.
RG: Not that it matters. El Duque will be hurt by the time McCarthy is ready. The Future is now.
RG: Yeah, he is bonkers. I like that.
AT: Anyway, Maddux had been pitching pretty well in May until he encountered the water-logged mound at RFK Stadium. That really seemed to mess with his pitching mojo.
RG: Sure. Blame the mound. Wes Obermueller didn’t seem to have a bad time with it. Maddux, a hall-of-famer, should be above petty complaining about such things.
RG: That was bush league.
AT: Was it bush league that Maddux complained about the mound, or was the mound at RFK bush league? I think it was the latter.
AT: The thing about Maddux is that he is very specific about where his feet land when he pitches, so a wet mound could probably really mess with him. I have heard that his spikes land in the same spike holes on every single delivery – and that he has designed his delivery so he will do that.
RG: I find that hard to believe.
AT: Well, me too. But I have heard crazier things about Maddux.
RG: He’s pitched on something like 25 different mounds in his career.
RG: I’m pretty sure he’s been on worse mounds than that at RFK at one time or another.
AT: Not since the minor leagues.
RG: Maybe, but that’s still a bush league thing to complain about. Do your job.
AT: Whatever. This isn’t the first time someone’s complained about the crappy conditions at RFK, and it probably won’t be the last.
RG: Yeah, but it’s similar to when hitters complain about big pitcher’s parks. It’s dumb. Last time I checked, the other guy has to pitch on that mound, too.
RG: Plus, I’m sure Maddux has had his home-field advantages at the varying parks he’s pitched at. That happens. Each park is different.
AT: Yeah, and if you’ll recall, Jon Patterson, the Nationals pitcher also complained about the mound, and the grounds crew came out to fix it.
AT: Was that also bush league, Mr. Shut Up and Do Your Job?
RG: Yes. Yes it was.
RG: The Sox home park (to get back to the Chicago team that’s actually in first place) was the best for home run hitters in the AL in 2004.
RG: Did you hear Jon Garland, Mark Buerhle, et. al complain about it? No.
RG: Did Rick Sutcliffe complain about pitching at Wrigley when the wind was blowing out?
RG: No.
RG: It’s bush league.
AT: That’s apples and oranges. Complaining about the dimensions of the playing field is totally different than complaining about the conditions of the playing field.
RG: I don’t think so. It’s all the workplace environment.
AT: Well, you’re wrong, but whatever. Let’s get back to the Sox @ Cubs series. Any bold predictions to make?
RG: Bold predictions? The only prediction I’ll make is that the Sox will not get swept at Wrigley. The Sox are too good.
AT: Well, I can’t say that I disagree with that.
RG: Any predictions for the artists formerly known as Snugglies?
AT: The White Sox are playing great baseball right now, and the Cubs haven’t been, so I think the Cubs will probably drop one at home. The most likely candidate in my mind to get beaten by the Sox is Zambrano, and it’s not because he hasn’t pitched well in recent outings – it’s because he’s hurt. I’m very concerned about this tennis elbow business; I’m concerned that the Cubs are not giving it the full attention it deserves, and I’m concerned that Zambrano, being the fierce competitor that he is, will pitch through any pain he might be having, and not pitch as well as a result. But even if all the starting pitching is great, the bullpen could implode at any second.
AT: Maddux, to me, seems like the type of pitcher who could really eat up the Sox – they are not a patient team, and Maddux loves to take advantage of guys swinging early in the count.
RG: Oh, yeah.
AT: And Prior has been trick nasty. Any starting pitcher with a K rate of 10+ has got to be considered one of the best starters in baseball.
RG: Look, as you know, I’m not a true believer in this team as a lot of people are.
AT: Yes, I am well aware of your relative lack of belief in the Pale Hose.
RG: I understand the Sox are a horribly flawed team offensively. But, on the other side of the ledger (run prevention), the Sox are excellent. Any team that good at run prevention—especially in such a hitter’s park—is going to be OK.
RG: They are average at preventing walks, but are excellent at two things: BA against (an MLB-best .236) and keeping the ball in the yard (second in the AL with 32 HR against).
RG: The first is a testament to a monster defense (still at the top in defensive effiency) and the second is a testament to good pitching, I guess. Maybe luck.
AT: Well, that HR prevention stat does not bode well for the Cubs this weekend – they have been heavily dependent on the home run. You can throw out walks with both of these teams – neither team walks, and both will be hacking away all weekend. The average game time will be like 2:25.
AT: Especially without the DH
RG: I’m looking forward to TippyPitch trying to hit. That should be interesting.
AT: Watching AL pitchers hit during interleague play is one of my favorite parts of it.
RG: Yeah, it’s hilarious. I remember watching James Baldwin a few years back and laughing out loud.
AT: The Sox’s defense is a mystery to me, though. Where are they getting all this great defense from? The ChiPod? Certainly not Rowand. Is Iguchi really good? Uribe? I have my doubts that he is, as The Quote Machine said, “The best shortstop ever.”
RG: No, man. Rowand is good.
RG: The Sox have two centerfielders (Rowand and the ChiPod) and a Gold Glove winner (Dye) in their outfield. They have a shortstop with great defensive numbers (Uribe), Iguchi (who has a nice reputation) and Crede (ditto) in the infield.
RG: The Sox really do have a good defensive team.
AT: And it can’t be hard to cover the ground in the Cellular outfield
RG: Well, they’ve done it in opponent’s parks, too. Comerica, the Jake. The Humpdome.
AT: I’m still surprised they play the ChiPod in left instead of center.
RG: Well, Rowand is pretty good out there. He isn’t the fastest guy in the league, but he’s got a decent arm and he gets to a lot of balls. ChiPod’s biggest weakness (other than his bat. Zing!) is his arm.
AT: Yeah, he is dragging that team down a lot less than I had hoped.
RG: He is a base-stealing motherfucker. 24 out of 30, for a nice, cool 80% rate.
AT: Okay, I have an idea for the wager: how about we bet on the season series instead of just this weekend?
RG: What will we do if they split?
AT: Well, why don’t we make specific predictions (i.e., Sox win games 1 & 3 at Wrigley, etc.), and in the event of a split, whoever’s predictions are closer wins. We can wait to make the predictions for the series at The Cell until we know what the pitching matchups will look like.
RG: No way, man.
RG: That’s way too complicated.
AT: OK, do you have any better ideas?
RG: Why don’t we go by runs for/against.
RG: If they split, whomever has the smaller run differential wins.
RG: Like, let’s say they split, but the Sox win one of the game, like 25-3.
RG: I win, then.
AT: Oh, I see. Yeah, that’s a great idea. I’m assuming we would take the combined scores from all the games?
AT: Okay, unofficially, I would like to proclaim that I am predicting a split.
AT: But, officially, for the sake of this wager, the Cubs will win 4 out of 6.
RG: Oh, man, I expect the Sox to win 5 of 6.
AT: As sad as it makes me to say this, I wouldn’t be surprised if they did.
RG: Ozzie will outmanage Dusty in one of the games this weekend. I anticipate it’ll be the Sunday game. Dusty’ll leave Prior out there too long, while Ozzie’ll bring in Shingo, Dustin and Damaso.
AT: The one thing I can’t fault Dusty on this year is his handling of Prior. He has averaged about 103 pitches per start, and his season high so far has been 110. That said, Zambrano pitched 136 two outings ago and came down with “tennis elbow,” so it’s not like Dusty has softened up to abusing young pitchers.
RG: Yeah, Dusty feels insecure without a ‘proven closer’ and needs to work his starters into the ground.
AT: Well, I understand that to a certain degree… I’d feel insecure with no bullpen whatsoever, too. But that doesn’t excuse Dusty being, you know, a terrible manager.
RG: I agree.
AT: So, are we betting a photo of you in Cubs garb or me in Sox garb? To be posted on the website?
RG: Yeah, for the season series.
AT: Agreed.
AT: Would you like the pinstripes or the blue pajamas?
AT: If I lose, I want the computer writing jersey, like your buddy icon
RG: Yeah, of course. I’ll send the hat, as well.
RG: It’s the only Sox jersey I have. I got rid of my silver and black jersey last year.
AT: They should still have that logo. The Sox would still have fans if they had that logo.
RG: No, they wouldn’t.